As the world's third largest automobile producer and the third largest automobile consumer, the global status of China's auto parts industry will rise with the global status of the auto manufacturing industry. The living environment and profitability of upstream auto parts companies will be improved. A big improvement.
After years of development, some of the enterprises in China's auto parts industry have the ability to independently develop and supply systems, and have reached the level of supporting complete parts systems for commercial vehicles and supporting general parts systems for cars. However, the proportion of China's auto parts industry in the automotive industry of about 35% and the profit ratio of about 40% is significantly lower than the international average of 60%-70%, which means the development of China's auto parts industry in the future. The space is quite vast.
Industry welcomes gold development
The “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period will be the golden development period of China's auto parts industry, facing the period of strategic opportunities for the state to support independent innovation and the general trend of the shift of the western auto parts industry towards Asia, especially China. Some local component companies with professional advantages will be able to participate more in the simultaneous development of local automakers to develop their own brands and enhance their independent innovation capabilities, while at the same time being able to undertake the transfer of Western auto parts industry with more competitive advantages. The market share.
Analysis of industry operation situation in the first quarter
In the first quarter of 2007, the rapid growth of automobile production and sales continued to drive the rapid growth of the supporting income of the parts and components industry. In January-February 2007, the Chinese automobile manufacturing industry continued its rapid growth trend and maintained the growth structure of “faster and slowerâ€. The continuous growth of vehicle production and sales, as well as the rapid growth of passenger car sales in the market, laid a solid foundation for the rapid growth of sales revenue of China's parts industry.
China's car ownership continues to grow rapidly, driving the rapid growth of market revenue after the parts industry. The continued rapid expansion of car ownership has provided a long-term and sustained rapid growth point for the aftermarket sales of the component industry.
Rapid growth of parts exports to promote rapid growth of the parts industry According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, it is estimated that the export volume of parts and components of the statistical caliber will increase by more than 50% in the first quarter of 2007.
According to the price monitoring data of the National Development and Reform Commission, the major mainstream car companies in March have experienced sharp price cuts, and the pressure on price reduction of component suppliers is expected to rise. .
Raw material fuel power costs continue to slow down Since September 2006, the increase in raw material fuel power costs in February 2007 has fallen for the fifth consecutive month. We judge that the cost pressure of the auto parts industry is slowing down.
The sales revenue and total profit of the auto parts industry continued to grow rapidly. According to the estimated sales revenue of domestically produced vehicles in January-February 2007, the export of parts and components and the cost increase of the parts and components industry, we estimate the auto parts industry in the first two months. Income and profit growth were around 30% and 45% respectively.
The performance of the industry index was stronger than the market. The stock price of the mainstream company rose by a large margin. In the first quarter of 2007, the performance of the parts industry index was stronger than expected in the big market. The index rose by about 70%, exceeding the benchmark index CSI 300 (Market Forum). The index is more than 35 percentage points. Among them, the stock price increase of mainstream parts companies that we are more concerned about is mostly more than 50%.
The mainstream parts companies with strong professional advantages still have a large valuation space. Although the mainstream parts and components companies have performed well in the first quarter, they are based on the company's 07-08 performance expectations and its strong industry expertise and manufacturing costs. The value perception of advantages, the valuation of mainstream parts companies is still low, and there is still much room for improvement in the future.
Endogenous growth is very strong
With the continuous expansion of China's automobile production and sales scale and the steady growth of car ownership, the endogenous growth momentum of China's auto parts industry is very strong. The huge new car sales scale will provide the Chinese component industry with a continuous and rapid growth in supporting market capacity. The continued steady growth of China's civilian car ownership provides the component industry with a sustainable growth in aftermarket capacity. We expect the average growth rate in 2006-10 to be maintained at around 20%, and the number of possessions in 2010 will reach 80 million.
Export growth is equally good
Although the performance is mainly based on low value-added products, mainly based on raw material-consumption products, mainly in the after-sales market, and individuals looking for orders-based export patterns, but with the support of various positive factors, local parts companies are Actively strengthen integration capabilities, increase R&D investment, upgrade technology, and enter the global procurement system of major global automakers. We believe that relying on the "China cost" advantage and continuous technological innovation and quality improvement, local parts and components enterprises will accelerate the entry into the global procurement system to obtain a stable OEM market. It is estimated that by 2010, the export volume of parts and components will reach about 40 billion US dollars.
Industry revenues maintain rapid growth
In recent years, the fluctuation of domestic automobile price has shown a convergence pattern. After several years of intense price adjustment and market chain feedback, the total price of domestically produced vehicles, especially cars, will show a steady and small downward trend in the next few years. Therefore, we expect that the pressure on the pressure of price reduction in the automobile (complete vehicle) manufacturing industry in China's auto parts industry will weaken in 2007, which will help the parts industry to achieve higher growth.
Based on the rapid growth forecast of domestic automobile production and sales, the rapid growth of automobile ownership and the rapid growth of parts and components export, we believe that the relationship between the zero ratio of China's auto industry will evolve in the direction of “zero and small†in the next few years.
Industry competitive pressures lead to increased demand and capital demand
As the attractiveness of the domestic auto parts industry has further increased, further investment in various types of capital has led to increasing competition pressure in the industry. The desire for bigger and stronger existing parts companies and the desire to expand into new ones have led to an increase in demand for integration through mergers and acquisitions, which has led to an increase in demand for large capital expenditures. For domestic auto parts listed companies with a small overall size, the use of capital market financing is an effective means to solve the aforementioned needs, and it is expected that this situation will occur more and more.
Industry is expected to continue the growth trend of double economy
At least in the mid-term sense of the past few years, under the three major driving forces of faster growth of domestically produced automobile production and sales, rapid growth of China's automobile ownership and rapid expansion of parts and components, even taking into account price pressures and costs Pressure factors, the auto parts industry will still show the characteristics of "growth boom" and "benefit boom".
Key company reviews:
Weifu Hi-Tech (Market Forum) (000581): Based on the diesel engine nozzle industry to participate in the global division of labor to benefit and share the benefits of advanced technology â—Ž July 1, 2007 National implementation of the National III emission standards on the company's revenue and profits;
â—ŽThe company's revenue has grown steadily under the support of Bosch's diesel-fired processing and low-end emission products OEM business;
â—Ž It is expected that the investment income from Bosch Diesel will increase rapidly every year in the next few years;
â—Ž With the mandatory matching requirements of the National IV emission standard, the company's muffler catalytic converter business will have rapid growth;
â—Ž The company's domestic industry's first position and growth expectations are relatively determined to raise the valuation level.
Weichai Power (000549): Based on the most complete industrial chain in the heavy-duty automobile industry and the most professional position in China â—Ž Established a complete industrial chain from key parts of heavy-duty vehicles to complete vehicle manufacturing by absorbing and integrating the Hunan Torch;
â—ŽHaving the most complete heavy truck industry chain in China and greatly strengthening the company's core competitiveness and leading market position;
â—Ž Integrating the nationwide service outlets of Weichai Power, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and Fast, etc. to build a unified and large operation network will effectively save operating costs and effectively promote sales growth;
â—Ž As a large auto parts group in China, it has relatively clear expectations for sustained and steady growth.
Wanxiang Qianchao (Market Forum) (000559): Based on the overall listing of the parent company with a large number of high-quality parts and components assets, it is expected that the existing three major systems of transmission, chassis and bearings will maintain steady growth;
â—ŽThe market position of the largest independent parts group owned by the parent company has long-term support for the company's sustainable development;
â—Ž The parent company with a large number of high-quality domestic and overseas parts and components has the overall listing expectation based on the company.
Fuyao Glass (600660): Based on the global automotive glass industry, the status of the automotive glass industry is growing at the same time as the domestic and international markets. â—Ž After years of capacity expansion and market expansion, the rapid development of the automotive glass business has become a fast-growing company. The essential;
â—Ž It is expected that the company will introduce Goldman Sachs Capital as a strategic investor and enhance the company's future development momentum while promoting the company's growth quality;
â—Ž Under the rapid growth of the domestic and international markets of the automotive glass business, the company's profit is expected to achieve sustained and rapid growth in the past three years;
â—Ž Ranked fifth in the global automotive glass industry and Goldman Sachs Capital's corporate governance expectations boosted the company's valuation.
Zongshen Power (Market Forum) (001696): Based on the advantages of motorcycle engine and general power machinery, it has achieved continuous growth prospects. â—Ž Micro-engine export business has higher profitability than domestic sales of 1x gross margin due to high technical content;
â—Ž It is expected to establish a one-to-one strategic alliance with Europe's largest motorcycle and general power machinery company Piaggio and the United States' largest general power machinery company MTD to undertake the large-scale OEM business of global machine capacity transfer to China;
â—Ž The controlling shareholder's shareholding commitment to the profit of the private placement project enhances market confidence;
â—Ž The private placement financing project will contribute considerable profits in 2007-08 to promote sustained and rapid growth in performance.
After years of development, some of the enterprises in China's auto parts industry have the ability to independently develop and supply systems, and have reached the level of supporting complete parts systems for commercial vehicles and supporting general parts systems for cars. However, the proportion of China's auto parts industry in the automotive industry of about 35% and the profit ratio of about 40% is significantly lower than the international average of 60%-70%, which means the development of China's auto parts industry in the future. The space is quite vast.
Industry welcomes gold development
The “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period will be the golden development period of China's auto parts industry, facing the period of strategic opportunities for the state to support independent innovation and the general trend of the shift of the western auto parts industry towards Asia, especially China. Some local component companies with professional advantages will be able to participate more in the simultaneous development of local automakers to develop their own brands and enhance their independent innovation capabilities, while at the same time being able to undertake the transfer of Western auto parts industry with more competitive advantages. The market share.
Analysis of industry operation situation in the first quarter
In the first quarter of 2007, the rapid growth of automobile production and sales continued to drive the rapid growth of the supporting income of the parts and components industry. In January-February 2007, the Chinese automobile manufacturing industry continued its rapid growth trend and maintained the growth structure of “faster and slowerâ€. The continuous growth of vehicle production and sales, as well as the rapid growth of passenger car sales in the market, laid a solid foundation for the rapid growth of sales revenue of China's parts industry.
China's car ownership continues to grow rapidly, driving the rapid growth of market revenue after the parts industry. The continued rapid expansion of car ownership has provided a long-term and sustained rapid growth point for the aftermarket sales of the component industry.
Rapid growth of parts exports to promote rapid growth of the parts industry According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, it is estimated that the export volume of parts and components of the statistical caliber will increase by more than 50% in the first quarter of 2007.
According to the price monitoring data of the National Development and Reform Commission, the major mainstream car companies in March have experienced sharp price cuts, and the pressure on price reduction of component suppliers is expected to rise. .
Raw material fuel power costs continue to slow down Since September 2006, the increase in raw material fuel power costs in February 2007 has fallen for the fifth consecutive month. We judge that the cost pressure of the auto parts industry is slowing down.
The sales revenue and total profit of the auto parts industry continued to grow rapidly. According to the estimated sales revenue of domestically produced vehicles in January-February 2007, the export of parts and components and the cost increase of the parts and components industry, we estimate the auto parts industry in the first two months. Income and profit growth were around 30% and 45% respectively.
The performance of the industry index was stronger than the market. The stock price of the mainstream company rose by a large margin. In the first quarter of 2007, the performance of the parts industry index was stronger than expected in the big market. The index rose by about 70%, exceeding the benchmark index CSI 300 (Market Forum). The index is more than 35 percentage points. Among them, the stock price increase of mainstream parts companies that we are more concerned about is mostly more than 50%.
The mainstream parts companies with strong professional advantages still have a large valuation space. Although the mainstream parts and components companies have performed well in the first quarter, they are based on the company's 07-08 performance expectations and its strong industry expertise and manufacturing costs. The value perception of advantages, the valuation of mainstream parts companies is still low, and there is still much room for improvement in the future.
Endogenous growth is very strong
With the continuous expansion of China's automobile production and sales scale and the steady growth of car ownership, the endogenous growth momentum of China's auto parts industry is very strong. The huge new car sales scale will provide the Chinese component industry with a continuous and rapid growth in supporting market capacity. The continued steady growth of China's civilian car ownership provides the component industry with a sustainable growth in aftermarket capacity. We expect the average growth rate in 2006-10 to be maintained at around 20%, and the number of possessions in 2010 will reach 80 million.
Export growth is equally good
Although the performance is mainly based on low value-added products, mainly based on raw material-consumption products, mainly in the after-sales market, and individuals looking for orders-based export patterns, but with the support of various positive factors, local parts companies are Actively strengthen integration capabilities, increase R&D investment, upgrade technology, and enter the global procurement system of major global automakers. We believe that relying on the "China cost" advantage and continuous technological innovation and quality improvement, local parts and components enterprises will accelerate the entry into the global procurement system to obtain a stable OEM market. It is estimated that by 2010, the export volume of parts and components will reach about 40 billion US dollars.
Industry revenues maintain rapid growth
In recent years, the fluctuation of domestic automobile price has shown a convergence pattern. After several years of intense price adjustment and market chain feedback, the total price of domestically produced vehicles, especially cars, will show a steady and small downward trend in the next few years. Therefore, we expect that the pressure on the pressure of price reduction in the automobile (complete vehicle) manufacturing industry in China's auto parts industry will weaken in 2007, which will help the parts industry to achieve higher growth.
Based on the rapid growth forecast of domestic automobile production and sales, the rapid growth of automobile ownership and the rapid growth of parts and components export, we believe that the relationship between the zero ratio of China's auto industry will evolve in the direction of “zero and small†in the next few years.
Industry competitive pressures lead to increased demand and capital demand
As the attractiveness of the domestic auto parts industry has further increased, further investment in various types of capital has led to increasing competition pressure in the industry. The desire for bigger and stronger existing parts companies and the desire to expand into new ones have led to an increase in demand for integration through mergers and acquisitions, which has led to an increase in demand for large capital expenditures. For domestic auto parts listed companies with a small overall size, the use of capital market financing is an effective means to solve the aforementioned needs, and it is expected that this situation will occur more and more.
Industry is expected to continue the growth trend of double economy
At least in the mid-term sense of the past few years, under the three major driving forces of faster growth of domestically produced automobile production and sales, rapid growth of China's automobile ownership and rapid expansion of parts and components, even taking into account price pressures and costs Pressure factors, the auto parts industry will still show the characteristics of "growth boom" and "benefit boom".
Key company reviews:
Weifu Hi-Tech (Market Forum) (000581): Based on the diesel engine nozzle industry to participate in the global division of labor to benefit and share the benefits of advanced technology â—Ž July 1, 2007 National implementation of the National III emission standards on the company's revenue and profits;
â—ŽThe company's revenue has grown steadily under the support of Bosch's diesel-fired processing and low-end emission products OEM business;
â—Ž It is expected that the investment income from Bosch Diesel will increase rapidly every year in the next few years;
â—Ž With the mandatory matching requirements of the National IV emission standard, the company's muffler catalytic converter business will have rapid growth;
â—Ž The company's domestic industry's first position and growth expectations are relatively determined to raise the valuation level.
Weichai Power (000549): Based on the most complete industrial chain in the heavy-duty automobile industry and the most professional position in China â—Ž Established a complete industrial chain from key parts of heavy-duty vehicles to complete vehicle manufacturing by absorbing and integrating the Hunan Torch;
â—ŽHaving the most complete heavy truck industry chain in China and greatly strengthening the company's core competitiveness and leading market position;
â—Ž Integrating the nationwide service outlets of Weichai Power, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and Fast, etc. to build a unified and large operation network will effectively save operating costs and effectively promote sales growth;
â—Ž As a large auto parts group in China, it has relatively clear expectations for sustained and steady growth.
Wanxiang Qianchao (Market Forum) (000559): Based on the overall listing of the parent company with a large number of high-quality parts and components assets, it is expected that the existing three major systems of transmission, chassis and bearings will maintain steady growth;
â—ŽThe market position of the largest independent parts group owned by the parent company has long-term support for the company's sustainable development;
â—Ž The parent company with a large number of high-quality domestic and overseas parts and components has the overall listing expectation based on the company.
Fuyao Glass (600660): Based on the global automotive glass industry, the status of the automotive glass industry is growing at the same time as the domestic and international markets. â—Ž After years of capacity expansion and market expansion, the rapid development of the automotive glass business has become a fast-growing company. The essential;
â—Ž It is expected that the company will introduce Goldman Sachs Capital as a strategic investor and enhance the company's future development momentum while promoting the company's growth quality;
â—Ž Under the rapid growth of the domestic and international markets of the automotive glass business, the company's profit is expected to achieve sustained and rapid growth in the past three years;
â—Ž Ranked fifth in the global automotive glass industry and Goldman Sachs Capital's corporate governance expectations boosted the company's valuation.
Zongshen Power (Market Forum) (001696): Based on the advantages of motorcycle engine and general power machinery, it has achieved continuous growth prospects. â—Ž Micro-engine export business has higher profitability than domestic sales of 1x gross margin due to high technical content;
â—Ž It is expected to establish a one-to-one strategic alliance with Europe's largest motorcycle and general power machinery company Piaggio and the United States' largest general power machinery company MTD to undertake the large-scale OEM business of global machine capacity transfer to China;
â—Ž The controlling shareholder's shareholding commitment to the profit of the private placement project enhances market confidence;
â—Ž The private placement financing project will contribute considerable profits in 2007-08 to promote sustained and rapid growth in performance.
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