Abstract China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on the 1st: China's manufacturing PMI was 51% in June, and continued to rise by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, rising for four consecutive months. "PMI continues to rise, indicating that China...
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on the 1st: China's manufacturing PMI was 51% in June, and continued to rise by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, rising for four consecutive months. "PMI continues to maintain its upward trend, indicating that China's manufacturing industry has continued its good momentum of steady growth." Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out.
“The steady growth of the economy has basically been established,†said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomics Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council.
“PMI has rebounded for four consecutive months, especially in the last two months, reflecting the effect of steady growth in policy measures and the stability of economic growth.†China Logistics Information Center analysis report said.
Analysis of the reasons for the PMI to continue to rise in June, experts believe that this year, China has adjusted and fine-tuned according to the changes in the situation, and has increased the support for the real economy. With the effectiveness of various policy measures, the weak demand side has improved, and the sub-indices such as new orders have generally rebounded.
In June, the new order index rose by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month to 52.8%, the highest point since October last year; the production index rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 53%, among the five sub-indices that constitute PMI. The highest is the stabilizer for the PMI to continue to rise steadily.
It is worth noting that the difference between the production index and the new order index is the smallest during the year. Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that this reflects the further strengthening of the coordination between the market and production, the contradiction between supply and demand has eased, and the economic operation has become more stable.
The new export order index for June was 50.3%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month and the highest point since December last year. Zhao Qinghe believes that this is mainly due to the recent economic improvement of China's major trading partners, such as Europe, the United States and Japan, and the recovery of external demand. In addition, China's support for the steady growth of foreign trade and the promotion of trade facilitation and other reform measures, the manufacturing export situation has further improved.
Although the PMI in June showed many positive signs that helped people to strengthen their confidence in the Chinese economy, there are also data showing that the current economy is still facing downward pressure and must be treated with caution.
Zhao Qinghe said that although the manufacturing PMI rebounded for four consecutive months in June, the driving force for the PMI rise was not balanced. In June, the import index was 49.2%. Although it rose by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, it was still below the critical point for seven consecutive months. The demand for imported raw materials remained weak. The employee index was 48.6%, although it was more than last month. It rebounded by 0.4 percentage points, but it is still below the critical point. In particular, the index of small business employees is 48.3%, which continues to be below average. The shortage of structural labor still exists.
Cai Jin stressed that the small business PMI index stabilized in June but remained low, and continued to be below the critical point. Relevant departments should increase support for small enterprises and create a good business environment for small enterprises through reforms.
According to the analysis report of China Logistics Information Center, July is a low season for traditional production and operation due to high temperature and rain. From the survey, many companies report that they are affected by the off-season and are expected to decline in July. The “directed regulation†and “micro-stimulus†policies still need to maintain a certain intensity to offset the adverse effects of the off-season and ensure that the macroeconomic operation is within a reasonable range.
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