Potash fertilizers are consumed in nearly 150 countries around the world. Currently, the countries with the largest potash fertilizer imports in the world are the United States, Brazil, India, and China. The total imports of these countries account for about 70% of the global imports.
From this point of view, both in terms of production supply and consumer demand, global potash fertilizers are highly concentrated, and the monopoly of trade patterns directly affects the price mechanism of the world's potash fertilizer market. The international potash giants have strong pricing power. Countries such as Brazil and India that lack potassium fertilizers are often in a passive position in the negotiations on potash fertilizer imports. The price of potassium chloride has been stable between US$150-250/ton between 2008 and 2008. The global price of potash fertilizer has risen sharply in 2008, and the highest value of South-East Asia standard KPK CPK has reached US$1,000/ton, the Chinese standard chlorinated. Potassium CIF up to 640 US dollars / ton, from the second half of 2008 to 2010, the global price of potassium chloride quickly fell, eventually fell to 350 US dollars / ton, and now stabilized at 400 US dollars / ton. No matter what the price trend is, China has always been at the bottom of global price import prices.
According to IFA's 2011 Global Capacity Survey, global potash fertilizer production capacity is approximately 660-68 million tons and consumption is approximately 53-55 million tons. At the same time, more than 150 potash-related projects are being implemented worldwide. New production capacity will mainly appear in Canada and Russia, while Argentina, Belarus, Brazil, Chile, Laos, Congo (Brazzaville), China and Jordan will also have new production capacity. From a regional point of view, North America will become the largest supplier, accounting for 39% of the global potential supply, followed by Eastern Europe, Central Asia, East Asia, West Asia and Latin America. Since Canada, Russia, and Belarus have centralized control of global potash fertilizer resources, although there is a situation of overcapacity, suppliers can maintain supply and demand balance in the potash fertilizer market by controlling the operating rate to be between 65% and 80%.
In the context of accelerated release of production capacity, the newly added capacity in the past three years is still controlled by the original potash producers. The monopoly of trade will not be broken in the short term. But in the long run, overcapacity will force internal competition to intensify. Coupled with the demand of potash fertilizers, they are constantly seeking support and protection of resources. With the participation of new potash trading partners, monopolistic coalitions may loosen gradually, changing the current potash market. price setting policy. Therefore, with overcapacity increasing, the global potash fertilizer market may shift from the seller's market to the buyer's market in the future.
China's self-sufficiency in potash fertilizer improvement China is the fifth largest potassium salt producer in the world, accounting for 7% of global potash production. At present, China's potash fertilizer production capacity is about 550 million tons, most of which is concentrated in Qinghai and Xinjiang regions.
The total actual potash fertilizer demand in China is about 900-950 million tons. The growth in demand for potash fertilizer mainly comes from two aspects: First, the expansion of agricultural production brings about an increase in the demand for chemical fertilizers (including nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium); Potash application rate increased. According to relevant institutional data, the compound growth rate of real potash fertilizer consumption in China in the past ten years was 5.3%. It is expected that demand for potash fertilizer will rebound rapidly from low to high in 2009-2014, and the compound growth rate should be 8.6%.
According to an assessment, it is expected that China's potash production capacity will continue to grow from 2010, and is expected to reach around 8-9 million tons in 2015. Salt Lake Potassium Potassium Chloride has an additional capacity of 1 million tons/year and is expected to be put into operation from 2012 to 2013. Guotou Petrochemical Potassium Potassium has an additional capacity of 600,000 tons/year, and is expected to be put into production in 2015. Guotou Petrochemical's new production capacity of potassium, magnesium and potassium will be 1.1 million tons/year, and it is expected to start production in 2015.
Domestic new capacity also includes overseas resources. In order to make up for the insufficiency of domestic resources, many Chinese potash fertilizer companies are actively seeking and developing potash resources overseas. However, due to the problems of immature technology and project investment, they have not yet reached scale.
The demand for potash fertilizer in China has grown steadily. It is expected that there will still be a gap of 300 to 4.5 million tons in the future. The dependence on potassium imports by China will persist for a long time, and the import dependency will remain at around 30%. With the continuous development and release of new domestic production capacity, the self-supply capacity of potash fertilizer in China will increase, which will allow China to gain more room for bargaining negotiations with the world's potash fertilizer giants.
In the second half of the year, the risk of price downside was not significant. At the beginning of 2012, the domestic potash stocks were 3 million tons. In the first half of the year, the import contracts signed totaled about 2 million tons, including 500,000 tons imported from Canada, 400,000 tons from Russia, 300,000 tons from Jordan and Israel52. Ten thousand tons; border trade potassium stocks reached about 1.4 million tons; domestic potassium was about 5 million tons. It is currently estimated that the domestic supply of potash fertilizer will be about 11.4 million tons in 2012. Overall, the supply of potash fertilizer market in China was sufficient in 2012, but the total supply in 2011 was 13.5 million tons, which is still slightly less than last year.
In the second half of this year, the potash fertilizer market was affected by several factors: First, the domestic supply of potash fertilizer was sufficient, and supply and demand were basically balanced. On the one hand, the price of domestic potash fertilizer is supported by the price of imported potash fertilizer. On the other hand, it needs to pay attention to the financial statements of several large-scale production companies to analyze the pricing factors of domestic potash fertilizer companies. Second, the international market has demand support in the third quarter, and there is little risk of market downside in the second half of the year. At present, the international potash fertilizer supplier's sales strategy is to maintain price stability, so it will not significantly adjust the offer. Secondly, the specific potash negotiations in the second half of the year will also be based on the international market conditions and domestic stocks. India's potash fertilizer import contract in the second half of the year may have a certain impact on China’s negotiations in the second half of the year. Finally, at present, the off-season application of compound fertilizers, compound fertilizer plants have relatively low demand for raw materials. At the same time, there is not enough inventory in the factory. With the coming of the fertilizer season in autumn, demand will gradually be released. Overall, the factors affecting the potash fertilizer market in the second half have not changed much. Therefore, it is expected that there will be little room for the domestic potash fertilizer market to fall in the second half of 2012, and there will be no upward support in the short term, and it will maintain a basically stable trend.
From this point of view, both in terms of production supply and consumer demand, global potash fertilizers are highly concentrated, and the monopoly of trade patterns directly affects the price mechanism of the world's potash fertilizer market. The international potash giants have strong pricing power. Countries such as Brazil and India that lack potassium fertilizers are often in a passive position in the negotiations on potash fertilizer imports. The price of potassium chloride has been stable between US$150-250/ton between 2008 and 2008. The global price of potash fertilizer has risen sharply in 2008, and the highest value of South-East Asia standard KPK CPK has reached US$1,000/ton, the Chinese standard chlorinated. Potassium CIF up to 640 US dollars / ton, from the second half of 2008 to 2010, the global price of potassium chloride quickly fell, eventually fell to 350 US dollars / ton, and now stabilized at 400 US dollars / ton. No matter what the price trend is, China has always been at the bottom of global price import prices.
According to IFA's 2011 Global Capacity Survey, global potash fertilizer production capacity is approximately 660-68 million tons and consumption is approximately 53-55 million tons. At the same time, more than 150 potash-related projects are being implemented worldwide. New production capacity will mainly appear in Canada and Russia, while Argentina, Belarus, Brazil, Chile, Laos, Congo (Brazzaville), China and Jordan will also have new production capacity. From a regional point of view, North America will become the largest supplier, accounting for 39% of the global potential supply, followed by Eastern Europe, Central Asia, East Asia, West Asia and Latin America. Since Canada, Russia, and Belarus have centralized control of global potash fertilizer resources, although there is a situation of overcapacity, suppliers can maintain supply and demand balance in the potash fertilizer market by controlling the operating rate to be between 65% and 80%.
In the context of accelerated release of production capacity, the newly added capacity in the past three years is still controlled by the original potash producers. The monopoly of trade will not be broken in the short term. But in the long run, overcapacity will force internal competition to intensify. Coupled with the demand of potash fertilizers, they are constantly seeking support and protection of resources. With the participation of new potash trading partners, monopolistic coalitions may loosen gradually, changing the current potash market. price setting policy. Therefore, with overcapacity increasing, the global potash fertilizer market may shift from the seller's market to the buyer's market in the future.
China's self-sufficiency in potash fertilizer improvement China is the fifth largest potassium salt producer in the world, accounting for 7% of global potash production. At present, China's potash fertilizer production capacity is about 550 million tons, most of which is concentrated in Qinghai and Xinjiang regions.
The total actual potash fertilizer demand in China is about 900-950 million tons. The growth in demand for potash fertilizer mainly comes from two aspects: First, the expansion of agricultural production brings about an increase in the demand for chemical fertilizers (including nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium); Potash application rate increased. According to relevant institutional data, the compound growth rate of real potash fertilizer consumption in China in the past ten years was 5.3%. It is expected that demand for potash fertilizer will rebound rapidly from low to high in 2009-2014, and the compound growth rate should be 8.6%.
According to an assessment, it is expected that China's potash production capacity will continue to grow from 2010, and is expected to reach around 8-9 million tons in 2015. Salt Lake Potassium Potassium Chloride has an additional capacity of 1 million tons/year and is expected to be put into operation from 2012 to 2013. Guotou Petrochemical Potassium Potassium has an additional capacity of 600,000 tons/year, and is expected to be put into production in 2015. Guotou Petrochemical's new production capacity of potassium, magnesium and potassium will be 1.1 million tons/year, and it is expected to start production in 2015.
Domestic new capacity also includes overseas resources. In order to make up for the insufficiency of domestic resources, many Chinese potash fertilizer companies are actively seeking and developing potash resources overseas. However, due to the problems of immature technology and project investment, they have not yet reached scale.
The demand for potash fertilizer in China has grown steadily. It is expected that there will still be a gap of 300 to 4.5 million tons in the future. The dependence on potassium imports by China will persist for a long time, and the import dependency will remain at around 30%. With the continuous development and release of new domestic production capacity, the self-supply capacity of potash fertilizer in China will increase, which will allow China to gain more room for bargaining negotiations with the world's potash fertilizer giants.
In the second half of the year, the risk of price downside was not significant. At the beginning of 2012, the domestic potash stocks were 3 million tons. In the first half of the year, the import contracts signed totaled about 2 million tons, including 500,000 tons imported from Canada, 400,000 tons from Russia, 300,000 tons from Jordan and Israel52. Ten thousand tons; border trade potassium stocks reached about 1.4 million tons; domestic potassium was about 5 million tons. It is currently estimated that the domestic supply of potash fertilizer will be about 11.4 million tons in 2012. Overall, the supply of potash fertilizer market in China was sufficient in 2012, but the total supply in 2011 was 13.5 million tons, which is still slightly less than last year.
In the second half of this year, the potash fertilizer market was affected by several factors: First, the domestic supply of potash fertilizer was sufficient, and supply and demand were basically balanced. On the one hand, the price of domestic potash fertilizer is supported by the price of imported potash fertilizer. On the other hand, it needs to pay attention to the financial statements of several large-scale production companies to analyze the pricing factors of domestic potash fertilizer companies. Second, the international market has demand support in the third quarter, and there is little risk of market downside in the second half of the year. At present, the international potash fertilizer supplier's sales strategy is to maintain price stability, so it will not significantly adjust the offer. Secondly, the specific potash negotiations in the second half of the year will also be based on the international market conditions and domestic stocks. India's potash fertilizer import contract in the second half of the year may have a certain impact on China’s negotiations in the second half of the year. Finally, at present, the off-season application of compound fertilizers, compound fertilizer plants have relatively low demand for raw materials. At the same time, there is not enough inventory in the factory. With the coming of the fertilizer season in autumn, demand will gradually be released. Overall, the factors affecting the potash fertilizer market in the second half have not changed much. Therefore, it is expected that there will be little room for the domestic potash fertilizer market to fall in the second half of 2012, and there will be no upward support in the short term, and it will maintain a basically stable trend.
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