Can China's photovoltaic power generation be "on the right and left?"

Compared with wind power with installed capacity in the world, China The development of photovoltaic power generation is still in its infancy, and its development level lags far behind Germany, Spain, Japan and other developed countries. The “short board” of the new energy power generation industry. The author believes that the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is a crucial period for the development of photovoltaic power generation in China. It is necessary to fully and fully understand the development status, existing problems and the situation of photovoltaic power generation, and better promote the healthy development of this industry. The growth rate will be faster than the world level. Recently, due to the rapid decline of photovoltaic power generation costs, the tightening of regulatory measures in photovoltaic power generation countries, the overcapacity of photovoltaic production capacity and the Fukushima nuclear crisis in Japan, the development environment facing the global photovoltaic power generation market is relatively high. complex. According to comprehensive judgment, the scale of photovoltaic power generation in the world and China will continue to grow rapidly in the near future, and the growth rate of photovoltaic power generation in China will be much higher than the world average. Global PV capacity growth, especially overcapacity, will result in The decline in the price of photovoltaic products has led to a reduction in the cost of power generation. In fact, under the influence of technological progress and scale effects, photovoltaic power generation costs have shown a rapid decline in recent years. Large ground in northern Europe, Southern Europe and the Middle East in 2010 The cost of generating electricity from photovoltaic power plants has been reduced to €0.29/kWh, €0.15/kWh and €0.12/kWh, respectively. China's photovoltaic power generation costs have also dropped from 42 to 47 yuan / kWh in 2000 to 1.5 yuan / kWh in 2010. Recently, a number of large photovoltaic power generation countries have adjusted their tariff subsidy policies, mainly to adapt to the rapid decline in photovoltaic power generation costs, to avoid market overheating and industry profits, and to control the economic cost of the government. However, in recent years, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has fallen more than the subsidy reduction, and photovoltaic power generation still has strong investment attractiveness. In particular, the nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan has raised concerns about the prospects of nuclear power in some countries, and has also raised expectations for the development of photovoltaic power generation by the government and the power industry. It is expected that the scale and growth rate of foreign photovoltaic power generation may slow down, but its growth rate will still be higher than that of wind power. Under the market signal that photovoltaic power generation continues to heat up, the production capacity of the world's photovoltaic product manufacturing enterprises including China continues to expand. Preliminary statistics show that the world in 2010 The production capacity of photovoltaic modules has increased by nearly 70%, reaching 30 million kilowatts by the end of 2010, and China has reached 20 million kilowatts. Affected by the adjustment of photovoltaic power generation policies in some EU countries, the global installed capacity of new photovoltaics in 2011 was only 17 million to 18 million kilowatts, and the growth rate has declined. In the case of insufficient demand in the international market, China's photovoltaic product manufacturing enterprises may shift their market focus to China. The price competition of domestic PV products will be more intense, which may further drive the rapid decline of power generation costs. According to the draft of the 12th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development, China's photovoltaic power generation planning targets for 2015 and 2020 are 9 million kilowatts and 47 million kilowatts, which is much higher than the previously drafted “Emerging Energy Industry Development Plan”. The goal of reaching 20 million kilowatts by 2020. Due to the late start and small base of photovoltaic power generation in China, the development tasks during the 12th Five-Year Plan and the 13th Five-Year Plan period are arduous. Under the impetus of the photovoltaic power generation equipment enterprises to expand the domestic market's loud voice, the decline of photovoltaic power generation costs, and the willingness of the country to develop photovoltaic power generation, the Chinese government will introduce photovoltaic power generation in the near future. A single incentive policy or combination policy such as on-grid tariffs has triggered a rapid rise in the domestic photovoltaic power generation market and an explosive growth in the short term.

Photovoltaic power generation and network easy to generate harmonics, three-phase current imbalance, output Power uncertainty is easy to cause grid voltage fluctuations and flicker, so it is necessary to meet certain grid-connected technical standards. The "Technical Requirements for Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems" issued in 2005 is a recommended national standard. The Technical Regulations for Accessing Power Systems for Photovoltaic Power Plants is a guiding national standard and has exceeded the period of use. Year 2009, The State Grid Corporation of China issued the "Technical Regulations for Connecting PV Power Plants to Power Grids" (for trial implementation), but the standard classifies photovoltaic power plants more extensively and lacks targeted refinement clauses. The kilowatt-scale small-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power generation system may be an important development direction for distributed photovoltaic power generation applications in China in the future, but the standard does not have corresponding requirements for accessing the 220-volt residential voltage.

Since the price of foreign photovoltaic power generation equipment is much higher than the domestic price, the problem of substandard charging of photovoltaic power generation equipment suppliers in the domestic market is more prominent. At the same time, the owners of the concession bidding project and the “Golden Sun Project” owners tend to reduce costs. Purchasing low-cost equipment, which makes the quality of the project difficult to guarantee.

Should see that in the policy Under the driving conditions, the development of the photovoltaic power generation industry depends on clear market expectations and development prospects. On the basis of summarizing the experience of concession bidding, it is necessary to determine the benchmark electricity price policy for photovoltaic power generation on the Internet as soon as possible, and establish a rolling adjustment mechanism. At the same time, it is also necessary to broaden the sources of funds for the development fund for renewable energy power generation, appropriately increase the additional level of electricity prices for renewable energy power generation, and ensure that financial support is in place.

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