Phoenix Network Financial News 2017 China Financial Annual Forum was held in Beijing on January 25-27. The forum focused on “new trends, new challenges, new impetus: a new pattern of global financial industry developmentâ€, comprehensive outlook on financial supervision, financial stability, and finance. Issues such as innovation and financial development will jointly solve new kinetics of global financial industry reform. Phoenix Net Finance reported the whole process.
Yan Changhong, a researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the market situation will continue to be mild in 2108. The CPI may be slightly higher than 2017. The PPI situation may fall slightly. In 2017, it is basically flat, and the macro policy trend is moderately tight. 2018 The overall tone of the year is still steady, and we are still talking about a proactive fiscal policy and a stable neutral monetary policy.
The following is the full text of the speech by Yan Changhong:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen! I mainly talk about the economic situation in 2018 and some of the government's policy goals.
The first part, the basic judgment of the economic situation, is first of all the global economy. The global economy was originally called "new mediocrity" by the international saying. Now the external situation has improved. The growth rate of the major developed economies is 2% to 2.5%. Emerging markets and emerging economies are expected to achieve higher growth. Of course, Mr. Liu Shijin has just analyzed it, mainly because of the inventory pull, the supply and demand situation in 2016 and 2017 has a new trend. In this way, the added value of industrial enterprises and tertiary industries above designated size will maintain a medium-high speed in 2018, about 6.5%-7.8%.
Second, the market situation, I gave it a name to continue to be mild, CPI may be slightly higher than 2017, PPI situation may be slightly down, 2017 is basically flat, macro policy tends to be moderately tight, 2018 The overall tone of the work is still steady, and we are still talking about a proactive fiscal policy and a stable neutral monetary policy.
From the perspective of monetary policy, the global monetary policy trend has basically ended from the era of comprehensive easing, and we will probably gradually turn to the overall tightening. In fact, the annual growth rate of M2 in the government work report is good or last year. In fact, it has not been achieved. In the previous year, it was 13%. In the final implementation, the growth was 11.6%. Last year, 12% was estimated. About 10%, on the whole, it is tight. The fiscal policy and supply-side structural reforms have been further deepened. The fiscal policy is mainly to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and structural tax cuts. The supply-side structural reform has entered a new stage of equal emphasis on addition and subtraction, paying more attention to the coordination of institutional supply and reform of reform, and promoting the combination of supply system optimization and incremental promotion. This is judged from the overall economic situation. But it's not just about it.
At present, the outstanding problems in economic operation and the structural contradictions that restrict the healthy and stable operation of the economy are still very prominent. First, the benefits of the real economy are still low. Although the profits of our industrial enterprises grew rapidly last year, the current industrial enterprises are mainly engaged. The profit margin of business is only about 6%, which is still lower than that of the financial sector. The average profit rate of the financial sector is still as high as 15%. The efficiency of the real economy is still low, especially the efficiency of investment is declining.
In the first three quarters, the total fixed asset investment of the whole society accounted for 77.3% of GDP. In fact, the marginal efficiency of investment has dropped significantly. That is to say, in 2007, the total capital formation required for our new unit of GDP was 220 million. But it has reached 610 million last year. We need more investment than in the past to achieve the same growth effect as in the past. The dynamics of the financial services real economy are still not strong. The problem of financial realism remains unresolved. Our manufacturing industry accounts for about 30% of GDP. About %, of course, less than 20% of the credit funds obtained from financial institutions. The situation of credit funds like real estate and local government financing is still quite prominent.
The policy tightening effect trend, environmental protection policy, high-pressure situation, governance financial chaos is more stringent. Under such circumstances, problems such as financing difficulties and financing will continue to occur, and the overall supporting and synergy of the industrial chain will decline. There are various problems. The problem of labor shortage and employment is coexisting. Laid-off workers do not adapt to traditional needs. The high-end technical talents in traditional industries are seriously lacking. For example, these problems may not only exist in the short term, but also exist in the medium term. In addition, policy actions may attract some industrial capital to return to developed economies, causing turmoil in international financial markets. This uncertain factor exists.
The 2018 Central Economic Work Conference has already made it very clear.
First, it is the most important measure for enterprises to reduce costs, reduce burdens and improve the economic benefits of enterprises. How to reduce the burden on enterprises and reduce the cost of enterprises should be more practical.
Second, activate the vitality of private capital and improve investment efficiency. In the past two years, the growth rate of private investment has continued to decline. In particular, some TPP projects have not formed the integration of state-owned capital and private capital. Such a problem is still quite prominent.
Third, it is difficult to overcome difficulties and improve the reform performance of key areas. In particular, the government's services for the release of uniforms, especially for new formats and new modes of supervision, need to be reformed and innovated.
4. How to communicate channels and prevent risks in the financial and real economy, and improve the effectiveness of the financial services entity economy.
Fifth, develop the digital economy, foster new industries, new formats, and new economic models. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China builds a modern economic system, mainly to solve the problem of how the real economy uses big data, use the Internet +, and use artificial intelligence to achieve deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy. It should be said that the digital economy is developing very fast in China. According to a calculation method, we are now leading the digital economy in the world.
6. Promote technological innovation and promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. In January, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an action plan to enhance the core competitiveness of manufacturing industry for three years. There will be some new initiatives in this regard. This is how to implement the most specific measures for high-quality development in the real economy. Everywhere, it falls to various departments and enterprises.
7. Further explore in depth and open up new paths. Nowadays, many new strategies and new ideas have been proposed for opening up to the outside world and regional coordination. It is necessary to explore specific paths, including deepening reforms and free trade experimental areas. The report of the 19th National Congress also mentioned, and we must explore the construction of free trade ports. Gao, the meeting of the free trade port I have participated in three meetings, and some meetings have to continue, but how to do it? In fact, it is still quite complicated and needs to be studied in depth.
Eight, in the promotion of employment, benefit the people's livelihood must be a real move. This year, both poverty alleviation, precision poverty alleviation, employment, the employment of new ecological migrant workers, and the employment of urban university graduates have many new requirements, and they also face many new difficulties, especially the reduction of the poverty population by 11 million this year. This year's university graduates and city university graduates are also close to 9 million. These problems in people's livelihood need to be seriously solved before they can achieve a stable development of the economy and society in 2018.
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