Fertilizer industry price increase performance improvement

In the first half of the year, the price of fertilizers rose significantly compared with the same period of last year. Affected by this, the performance of chemical fertilizer companies improved. Analysts believe that when the fertilizer industry enters the stage of cost competition, companies with resource advantages have relatively better performance, and the growth rate of the first half of the year is expected to be relatively higher. In addition, compound fertilizers and new fertilizer companies that use traditional single fertilizer as raw materials enter the industry. In the period of rapid development, the increase in performance in the first half of the year is also expected to be relatively higher.

Significantly improved after May. Fertilizer prices have risen significantly this year. China Chemical Network analyst Zhang Ming said that the latest ex-factory price of urea reached 2250-2280 yuan / ton, and last year's Spring Festival to June urea prices have been sideways at 1550 yuan / ton.

At the same time as the price of products rose, prices for coal, iron ore, and phosphate rock also rose significantly. Therefore, brokerage analysts are not optimistic about the profitability of enterprises that do not have resource advantages. However, the industry believes that should not be too pessimistic, after all, prices have eased the pressure of rising costs. In addition, the increase in coal prices this year is mainly concentrated in late March to April, and the cost pressure in May has been reduced a lot. According to the current prices, the profits of urea companies have been relatively “rich”.

Serious overcapacity in the industry is also a reason why analysts are not optimistic about urea. However, relevant persons in the industry association stated that it is impossible to look at the surface figures. Some urea plants have been discontinued, the overall operating rate is not high, and the industry has entered the phase of capacity reduction. While the demand is still relatively large, the price increase is an inevitable trend.

Compared with urea, brokerage analysts are more optimistic about phosphate fertilizer companies. Since June, phosphate fertilizers have entered the period of low export tariffs, and the current international phosphate fertilizer prices are significantly higher than domestic prices, and manufacturers are expected to obtain higher profits through exports. In addition, phosphate fertilizer companies in listed companies have more resource advantages than urea companies. For example, Sylert (002538) and Six Nations Chemicals (600470) have ** resources, and gas head enterprises in urea have long been troubled by lack of gas. Coal mines have few coal mines.

For potash fertilizer, the latest market price is 3,200 yuan/ton. Because China needs to import a large amount of potash fertilizer from abroad, the price of potash fertilizer is determined by the overseas market and it is in a stable and rising situation in recent years. The market is currently trading light, waiting for the outcome of the import negotiations. Analysts expect that the outcome of the negotiations may be around $450/ton, and if the price is even closer than $500/ton, the market reaction will be more apparent.

The determination of new fertilizer growth for compound fertilizers is more determined than that for traditional fertilizers, compound fertilizers, and new fertilizer companies. Analysts said that compound fertilizers and new-type chemical fertilizers use traditional fertilizers as raw materials for production, and their production costs are relatively low. At the same time, farmers are more willing to purchase them, have advantages in market competition, and have more room for growth.

According to the announcement, Xindu Chemical (002539) and Serlt's first-half performance increased by 100%-130%, and Jin Zhengda (002470) increased by 35%-45%. Cinda Securities analysts said that in 2009 China's fertilizer compounding rate was only 31.4%, compared with developed countries there is a big gap, so increase the proportion of compound fertilizer is China's long-term development strategy, the next few years, China's compound fertilizer There is still much room for development in the market.

Jin Zhengda is the only producer of controlled-release fertilizers in the A-shares. From the perspective of scale, the controlled-release fertilizer industry is less than 1% of the fertilizer market, but it will enter a period of rapid development during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. According to Xia Jingyuan, director of the National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center, the domestic production of controlled-release fertilizers will reach 5 million tons by 2015, and the application amount will reach 3 million tons. In 2009, the global consumption of coated slow-release fertilizers was 1.8 million tons. one third.