On May 25, the Swiss Federal Government stated that Switzerland will gradually close all its nuclear power plants in the country by 2034 and completely abandon nuclear power. Four days later, the ruling coalition of Germany’s neighboring country, Germany, decided to completely abandon nuclear power generation by 2022.
It is reported that the changes in the public opinions of the two countries mentioned above are the direct reasons for the adjustment of nuclear power policies by the two governments. In March 2011, after the earthquake and tsunami in Japan caused a nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the voices of the two peoples of Switzerland and Germany supporting the shutdown of the nuclear power plant became stronger. A survey of public opinion in Switzerland recently released showed that 80% of Swiss people support the government’s abandonment of nuclear power.
At the same time, both Switzerland and Germany have the ideal alternative to nuclear energy. Switzerland is rich in water resources and has great potential for development of hydropower. In recent years, Germany has made considerable progress in the use of renewable energy. The Swiss Federal Government stated that by vigorously improving the efficiency of energy use, continuing to develop hydropower and renewable energy, developing smart grids, strengthening research and development in the energy sector, and expanding energy imports, Switzerland can meet its own energy needs without relying on nuclear power.
In mid-May, at the two sessions of the CLSA China Investment Forum, Liu Su, China Representative for the C40 Urban Climate Change Leading Group, and Yang Lizhi, Director of the Sustainability Research Department of CLSA respectively delivered their keynote speeches. Water and Fire: China's Energy Structure Adjustment after the Earthquake in Japan and China's Outlook for Renewable Energy Industry. Although the focus is different, both studies use the same background—the shock and impact of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident on the energy industry.
The accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant caused a global review of nuclear power. Yang Lizhi said that in this context, renewable energy will face a new round of development opportunities. In the future, the use of renewable energy may increase by 30% to 50%. Liu Su believes that the development of nuclear power will not quickly turn around. The adjustment of China's energy structure should be a "contest between hydropower and thermal power."
Comprehensive national "Twelfth Five-Year" plan outline and "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" research report of power industry released in Beijing in December 2010, etc., can be calculated at the end of "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", China's nuclear power in the total installed capacity of power generation The proportion is about 3%, which is an increase of 1.8% over the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period. The growth rate is faster but the proportion is still relatively small. Liu Su said that taking into account the current development of wind power in China is facing some bottlenecks, hydropower will occupy a larger proportion in the increase.
“In the future, the proportion of coal-fired power generation will be reduced by 4 to 5 percentage points every 5 years.†Ouyang Changyu, Deputy Secretary General of the China Light & Power Co., Ltd. and Director of Industry Development Planning Department stated at the first power industry competition intelligence report in December 2010. He believes that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China will have a "fire backwater" situation. According to Ouyang Changyu, the ideas for the development of China's power during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period are: to give priority to the development of hydropower, optimize the development of coal-fired power, vigorously develop nuclear power, and actively promote new energy generation.
Regarding solar energy and wind power, Yang Lizhi’s judgment is that after the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant, all nuclear power plants in the world could not be replaced by renewable energy overnight, but some of them will be transformed. This will increase the market share of solar or wind power. If 30% of nuclear power is transformed, the total amount of solar energy and wind power may reach 16 GW between 2012 and 2015.
The latest forecast of BP2030 World Energy Outlook shows that the global renewable energy development rate will catch up with oil in the next 20 years. On March 8 this year, it was reported that Lufthansa has announced that from April 2011, an Airbus A321 will use biofuels for a six-month test flight. The report suggests that the EU has announced in 2010 that it will implement a carbon emission quota system for all commercial flights arriving in EU countries since 2012. Once this system takes effect as scheduled, it will promote the rapid development of biofuels in EU countries and countries with commercial flights to the EU.
All these phenomena seem to point to the same development direction of the energy industry: After the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, renewable energy sources are ushering in new development opportunities. However, there are always many uncertainties in the energy development process. Whether the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident really creates a new opportunity for the development of renewable energy depends on the choices of countries.
It is reported that the changes in the public opinions of the two countries mentioned above are the direct reasons for the adjustment of nuclear power policies by the two governments. In March 2011, after the earthquake and tsunami in Japan caused a nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the voices of the two peoples of Switzerland and Germany supporting the shutdown of the nuclear power plant became stronger. A survey of public opinion in Switzerland recently released showed that 80% of Swiss people support the government’s abandonment of nuclear power.
At the same time, both Switzerland and Germany have the ideal alternative to nuclear energy. Switzerland is rich in water resources and has great potential for development of hydropower. In recent years, Germany has made considerable progress in the use of renewable energy. The Swiss Federal Government stated that by vigorously improving the efficiency of energy use, continuing to develop hydropower and renewable energy, developing smart grids, strengthening research and development in the energy sector, and expanding energy imports, Switzerland can meet its own energy needs without relying on nuclear power.
In mid-May, at the two sessions of the CLSA China Investment Forum, Liu Su, China Representative for the C40 Urban Climate Change Leading Group, and Yang Lizhi, Director of the Sustainability Research Department of CLSA respectively delivered their keynote speeches. Water and Fire: China's Energy Structure Adjustment after the Earthquake in Japan and China's Outlook for Renewable Energy Industry. Although the focus is different, both studies use the same background—the shock and impact of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident on the energy industry.
The accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant caused a global review of nuclear power. Yang Lizhi said that in this context, renewable energy will face a new round of development opportunities. In the future, the use of renewable energy may increase by 30% to 50%. Liu Su believes that the development of nuclear power will not quickly turn around. The adjustment of China's energy structure should be a "contest between hydropower and thermal power."
Comprehensive national "Twelfth Five-Year" plan outline and "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" research report of power industry released in Beijing in December 2010, etc., can be calculated at the end of "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", China's nuclear power in the total installed capacity of power generation The proportion is about 3%, which is an increase of 1.8% over the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period. The growth rate is faster but the proportion is still relatively small. Liu Su said that taking into account the current development of wind power in China is facing some bottlenecks, hydropower will occupy a larger proportion in the increase.
“In the future, the proportion of coal-fired power generation will be reduced by 4 to 5 percentage points every 5 years.†Ouyang Changyu, Deputy Secretary General of the China Light & Power Co., Ltd. and Director of Industry Development Planning Department stated at the first power industry competition intelligence report in December 2010. He believes that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China will have a "fire backwater" situation. According to Ouyang Changyu, the ideas for the development of China's power during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period are: to give priority to the development of hydropower, optimize the development of coal-fired power, vigorously develop nuclear power, and actively promote new energy generation.
Regarding solar energy and wind power, Yang Lizhi’s judgment is that after the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant, all nuclear power plants in the world could not be replaced by renewable energy overnight, but some of them will be transformed. This will increase the market share of solar or wind power. If 30% of nuclear power is transformed, the total amount of solar energy and wind power may reach 16 GW between 2012 and 2015.
The latest forecast of BP2030 World Energy Outlook shows that the global renewable energy development rate will catch up with oil in the next 20 years. On March 8 this year, it was reported that Lufthansa has announced that from April 2011, an Airbus A321 will use biofuels for a six-month test flight. The report suggests that the EU has announced in 2010 that it will implement a carbon emission quota system for all commercial flights arriving in EU countries since 2012. Once this system takes effect as scheduled, it will promote the rapid development of biofuels in EU countries and countries with commercial flights to the EU.
All these phenomena seem to point to the same development direction of the energy industry: After the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, renewable energy sources are ushering in new development opportunities. However, there are always many uncertainties in the energy development process. Whether the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident really creates a new opportunity for the development of renewable energy depends on the choices of countries.
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