According to the latest list of US tariffs imposed on China, the US government imposed a 10% tariff on China's 200 billion US dollars of products, mainly including chemicals, textiles, food, clothing and handbags. Compared with the previous, the tax bill drafting bills with a small thunder and heavy rain, in just a few days, from the high-tech industry to the textile and apparel products, the large-scale "collection" of the US collection list, so that some of the original can not beat Onlookers are anxious.
Behind the scenes of several rounds of tariffs imposed by the US government, the Sino-US trade war has not cooled down. How much resurgence of trade frictions can bring more stamina to Sino-US trade? After the import and export commodities are shackled by strong customs duties, where will the cross-border road go?
The short-term impact is weak, and the "burning" of the Sino-US trade war is a fatal blow.
As one of the three troikas that drive economic growth, the volatility of the policy is very large. The US trade war is nothing more than restraining China’s economic input to the United States. The intensifying Sino-US trade war is not a hole. In the late 1990s, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, which was able to compete with the United States, the United States could not adapt to the rapid growth of China's economy in the face of the world's only superpower. The concept of "equality is equal" has not changed. In August 2017, the “301 Survey†was initiated by the US trade delegation. Since the unilateral cancellation of Sino-US trade preferences and the retaliatory tariffs on Chinese products, 50 billion, 100 billion, 200 billion and subsequent Trump or additional levies Under the US$500 million product list, what are the threats to Chinese export companies under the list of products covered and imposed by the US government?
Gao Jinjun, founder and CEO of Cross-Teacher, claimed: "Retail globalization is an irreversible trend. Sino-US trade wars. For export cross-border e-commerce, the retail impact of consumer goods will not be too great, but for the US overseas For sellers who are stocking goods, they need to be more cautious. In the context of trade wars, the expansion of taxation scope and the start of consumption tax will increase a lot of uncertainty. For sellers who have shipped goods to the US through overseas warehouses, they will be more cautious. In the long run, it may force cross-border e-commerce sellers to upgrade from reversing to brand operations."
In his view, compared with the US imports of the destination country, the proportion of cross-border online retailing in the US retail purchases is still relatively small. For Chinese exports, we see export cross-border e-commerce every year. The growth rate is 30%, but for the total amount of China's exports, the proportion of cross-border exports is still relatively small, and there is still a very large room for development. In the past, the growth of export cross-border e-commerce relied on the dividend of Internet traffic and the development of the dumping model of massive SKU products. The advancement of the trade war will accelerate the death of this model and the upgrade of brand e-commerce that pursues cost-effectiveness in the long run. development of. At this level, it may be a good thing. In any era, the brand owners who have the core support are the winners in international trade.
Li Jiasong, CEO of Xiamen Xinweifa Industrial Co., Ltd., said to Hugo.com: "We have been paying more attention to the trend of cross-border export trade under the Sino-US trade war. In addition to the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, the list released this time is still targeting China's 2025 strategy. Industry, I think that in the short term, it will have little effect on the basic consumer goods we operate. What we are worried about is that trade friction may expand in the future and spread to other industries and fields, which will affect our company. Even, we Worry more does not come from direct tariff increase, but other indirect factors caused by trade friction, such as exchange rate fluctuations, cross-border e-commerce supporting industries, such as logistics, customs clearance, warehousing and other links, and overseas power The policy changes of the business platform may affect more. There is also a possible factor: the psychological changes of consumers in the target market, trade frictions from the government's confrontation level to the private sector, such as commodity boycotts, etc., this will The sales of the products have adversely affected."
Based on the relatively safe period of quiet in a short period of time, the founder of the network, He Yang, said that once the trade war continues to deteriorate, it is not only the Amazon sellers will have no choice but to go, including domestic Taobao, Jingdong, 1688, and traditional manufacturing industries. Sexual shock, because in most cases, most orders from domestic manufacturers and traders still need to rely on US consumption. He said, "The US Supreme Court has announced that all online retailers need to levy a consumption tax on consumers like offline retail stores. This problem needs to be divided into two parts, namely: taxing consumers. Will it affect sales? Does the seller need to start filing tax returns?†For the first question, He Yang believes that the consumption tax will not have much impact on platforms such as Amazon, Wal-Mart and eBay. Although the development of online retail in the United States is relatively rapid, the volume of offline retailing far exceeds the scale of online retailing. If the US has already implemented consumer payment and collection, the online consumption tax will not actually be for consumers. How much impact it brings. In response to the second question, in his view, the tax rates and tax laws of the US states are different. The US government may require Chinese sellers to register tax codes in various US states and conduct tax returns for online sales. But don't worry, many online platforms in the US can provide tax reporting process and specific payment for sellers.
Chen Jian, general manager of Fujian Far East Electric Group, said frankly that in terms of the Group's existing market share, many of their businesses are in the United States. If the Sino-US trade war also includes the motor industry in the tax collection list, the most direct is the year-end. Sales in the shopping season will be greatly affected, and sales will be difficult to revert in the short term, because the purchasing power of the US market is difficult to replace with other countries, and switching to other countries is only a wish. In this regard, the CEO of BuyerParty.com overseas team platform also said: "The recent Sino-US trade war has indeed made foreign traders more anxious, but it is not feasible to transfer the market to Europe to re-explore and set up. Under the Sino-US trade war Taxpaying products and taxation entities cannot escape. Therefore, under the current situation that all sellers are facing taxation, how to legally offset is the key for sellers to save revenue in the existing market."
1. Product innovation
The product is king. Once the products manufactured by the seller are not replaced and the market is competitive, no matter how the tariff policy is adjusted, the target market and core consumer groups of cross-border e-commerce sellers will not be lost.
2. Reduce logistics costs and offset tariffs
Of course, for cross-border e-commerce export retail, the price is controlled by the seller himself. Assuming that the United States needs to impose a 25% consumption tax, sellers want to maintain the buyer's purchase cost, you can also reduce logistics costs by means of overseas warehouses, reduce profit margins, maintain market share and retain customers.
3. Reduce cost and expenditure buffer tariffs
China is still the birthplace of manufacturing. Between the two sides, the US consumers will tend to purchase directly from Chinese factories. Then, Chinese manufacturing companies can tap the price advantage of the supply chain, reduce the increase of intermediate dealers and cross-border e-commerce sellers, to buffer the impact of import tariffs.
4. Develop entrepot trade
At present, domestic manufacturers can actually think about the breakthrough point of entrepot trade. Traders or manufacturers, trade is not directly between China and the destination consumer countries, but through the use of third-party countries with equally developed productivity to trade transactions, convert trade entities to legal tax avoidance.
No intersection of imported goods has been affected, trade friction is essential for legitimate defense
Affected by the tariffs imposed by the United States, as a counterattack, China’s measures to impose tariffs on certain US products were officially implemented on July 6. Therefore, in one time, in order to arrive at the Chinese port before the measures came into effect, the news that "the US soybean cargo ship was arrogant and could not escape 40 million punishments" was overwhelming.
For the platform or enterprise engaged in import trade, although the case of bulk goods is more special, the facts that are truly reflected are consistent. Relevant import industry insider Xiao Xu said: "Before the outbreak of Sino-US trade, there is indeed a big difference in the profit margin faced by importers. Before the entry into force of customs clearance and tariffs, customs clearance will be cleared to Hong Kong, and a 25% tariff will be temporarily imposed for the small profits. For importers, it is a huge expense. Of course, for the vast majority of importers, China’s tariffs against the United States have not had much impact.
In this regard, Chen Xiaoying, deputy director of Carrot Village, admitted that the Sino-US trade war has had little impact on the imported e-commerce platform. "The main products of cross-border imports are concentrated in beauty, maternal and child, health care, snacks, clothing and other categories. The Chinese side imposes tariffs on the US mainly on agricultural products, industrial equipment, etc., and the two sides do not have much overlap; the United States only imports One of the countries that purchase goods has a relatively small proportion of imports compared to Europe and Asia. In addition, from the perspective of taxation, the Chinese side of the trade war is taxed as a tariff, and the cross-border e-commerce import model The tariffs are all zero, and it has not affected the taxation."
While talking about the impact of supply stability and delivery time, Chen Xiaoying said that during the period of entering the bonded warehouse, the imported goods may be delayed due to the collection of test reports and other qualifications, and the overall will not have a particularly obvious impact. Based on the current status of the import industry, he also suggested that import platforms and importers should also be familiar with changes in national trade policies to avoid the negative impact of Sino-US trade wars. “Importers should always pay attention to national policies and adjust their selection and marketing strategies in a timely manner; avoid excessive concentration in the selection of categories and regions, and avoid the impact of certain categories or regions; ensure that the source of products is formal and requires manufacturers. Provide a more comprehensive qualification to ensure that the products are genuine and quality standards. Generally speaking, China still supports the cross-border e-commerce import, and we are also very motivated. Regardless of the short-term or long-term, we should still hold the national policy. Optimistic and positive expectations." Chen Xiaoying concluded.
Big country game, industry service providers shun the "main battlefield"
The trade deficit is one of the main conflicts between the Sino-US trade war. The expansion of the list of taxable products in the United States has affected the related logistics enterprises that provide cross-border transportation and warehousing services. According to data from Industrial Securities, under extreme assumptions, if China’s exports to the United States are all stopped, the impact on furniture, electronics, textiles and garments and leather products and electrical equipment is the largest, with output falling by more than 5%. Among them, the decline in furniture output exceeded 15%. In addition to the above-mentioned most affected entity manufacturing industries, retail and logistics companies that provide services to these enterprises will be affected by the correlation.
The relevant person in charge of Mingte Logistics reported to Hugo.com: "The increasingly intensive US tariffs have actually affected the cross-border logistics industry more or less. The shipments of several cabinets that were sent before this week are landing. After the United States, they have already received the information of the stone hammer. The original product was not subject to customs duties. However, due to the influence of Trump’s New Deal ARTICLES OF CHINA and US NOTE 20, the hard-boiled life was increased by 25% and the price was 4167 dollars. ""
In the current complicated Sino-US environment and new tariffs, cross-border logistics has undergone subtle changes in this “sensitive periodâ€. Gao Mingjin, an expert in advanced logistics supply chain in ezbuy China, pointed out: "Even if the object of taxation in the United States is gradually expanding, the impact on the cross-border e-commerce industry is not particularly serious in terms of the whole category. But the Sino-US trade war is in the form of arrogance. The cross-border logistics direction has also caused certain impact: the US shipping space is getting more and more tight, and some shipping companies are also affected by this. Some routes are also removed.†The two alliances of THE Alliance and 2M have successively announced the suspension or cancellation of the Asian-to-US West route. Later, on July 6, Hapag Lloyd Ship Company announced that as a member of THE Alliance Alliance, Hapag Lloyd decided to reduce the maritime route from Asia to the west coast of the United States as ONE and Yangming Shipping. In response to the adjustment of the logistics direction, Gao Mingjin suggested: sellers should pay attention to the US customs policy in a timely manner, try to avoid the list of products sanctioned by the US government; legally and regularly sort out product tax declarations, and do not anti-dumping and low-priced products.
In addition to the small-scale diversion adjustment of the cross-border logistics industry, Zhang Jian, general manager of Hezhong Business Marketing Department, replied: “Trademarks and intellectual property rights are a big concept. For now, the impact of Sino-US trade wars on this field has affected. Smaller, perhaps in the long run, Chinese sellers will reduce their presence in the US market, but it will not have a serious impact in the short term." At the same time, cross-border e-commerce payment service providers also said that it seems that the main impact of the trade war is the specific products of B2B bulk trade, and there is no direct impact on the payment industry related to exporting cross-border e-commerce. Worried about exchange rate fluctuations, and the impact of exchange losses will be minimized if rules can be avoided.
In the face of the pressure on the United States to impose tariffs, the directors of the China Private Economy Research Association and media columnists also pointed out to Hugo. The incident will have an impact on some industries and enterprises, but from this trade war. China can also develop contradictions and problems in its economic development, so as to better lengthen the shortcomings in China's economic development and enhance the resilience and risk resistance of China's economic development. Once again, the United States has repeatedly provoked tariffs and swayed the trade, and it is necessary to guard against the possibility of being "turned over and rewinded" one day.
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