After the release of import and export data in the first quarter, the relevant departments have both anxiety and gratification. Worryingly, the growth rate of import and export in the first quarter was only 7.3%, and the growth rate of single digits showed that China's foreign trade import and export was at a low level. The 111th Canton Fair, which is being held, also reflects the spread of such worries among exporters. Liu Jianjun, spokesman of the Canton Fair and deputy director of the China Foreign Trade Center, admits that the current export risks are increasing. Exhibitors of this session of the Canton Fair generally reported that there were more merchants than in the same period in the past, but the willingness to purchase was more cautious. In particular, from the order situation in the first quarter of this year, the export situation in the coming months is still difficult. Data seven key provinces and cities sharply lower exports, according to the latest statistics Fair Organizing Committee, an exhibition of machinery and electronic products, there are mechanical and electrical business turnover of 10 billion dollars broken, business turnover exceeded $ 91 million. Among them, the turnover of traditional markets in Europe and the United States has declined, and the turnover of emerging markets such as Latin America and ASEAN has increased significantly. Wang Guiqing, vice president of China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronics, told reporters that according to the research feedback of the Chamber of Commerce in the Canton Fair, the company’s orders in hand increased slightly compared with the same period of last year, but the sustainability is still unknown, and the current increase is 10%. There are still gaps in the target mission. This phenomenon in the Canton Fair is not surprising. China's first quarter foreign trade import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first quarter, China's total import and export value was 859.37 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.3% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 430.02 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.6%; imports were 429.35 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.9%; cumulative trade surplus was 670 million US dollars. It is worth noting that the export growth rates of traditional export-oriented provinces and cities such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian, Shanghai and Beijing increased by 5.4%, 2.8%, 6.1%, 1.3%, 10.4%, 3.2% and 4 respectively. %, except Fujian, lags far behind the national average export growth rate. These provinces account for nearly 80% of China's exports. Guangdong's total import and export volume accounted for about a quarter of the country's total. The person in charge of the Guangdong Trade Fair of the Canton Fair said during the Canton Fair's symposium that the trade situation in Guangdong has improved slightly in March, but it is still not optimistic. During the first phase of the Canton Fair, Vice Governor Zhao Yufang convened a meeting with the heads of the Canton Fair Trading Delegations in the province to discuss how to grab the Canton Fair orders and try to curb the continued slowdown in exports. The person in charge said that the person in charge of the Shenzhen Trading Group expects the trade growth rate to reach 10% this year, which is extremely important for the steady growth of Guangdong Province. The trade volume of Shenzhen City accounts for about 45% of the province's trade volume. Responding to stabilizing the electromechanical trade and protecting the annual 10% import and export growth Ministry of Commerce commentator, Tsinghua University Sino-US Relations Research Center researcher Zhou Shizhen said that the first quarter has always been the weakest quarter of China's foreign trade, "the trade in the first quarter is still stable, The annual trade surplus is expected to be significantly reduced from the previous year's $155 billion, with an estimated total size of $100 billion. However, at the Canton Fair, where the country's most representative export companies have accumulated, there is no expert optimism. The company generally told reporters that the order situation in the first quarter was not satisfactory, and the 10% drop in orders was not an individual case. They also expected that the situation in the second half of this year was not optimistic. According to a survey and analysis materials provided by the China Chamber of Commerce for Industry and Commerce, “the current favorable factors in world economic trade are increasing, and some traditional markets such as the United States and Japan are showing signs of recovery. The first quarter is usually the period when China’s foreign trade growth rate is low. The quarter is often the peak period for enterprises to receive orders, and the third quarter is the peak period for shipments. According to recent research on enterprises, combined with experts and scholars, China's electromechanical trade is expected to achieve growth of around 10% in 2012. In fact, go At the end of the year, exports began to slow down markedly. In March of this year, China’s exports of mechanical and electrical goods showed signs of recovery. In the first quarter, the growth rate of mechanical and electrical products exports was 9.1%, which was 1.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all-product exports in the same period. Wang Guiqing said that a variety of factors are driving a slight improvement in the electromechanical exports in March, including the release of rigid demand in the market itself. He revealed that during the January-February this year, the Electrical and Mechanical Industry Association tracked 47 key export commodities, and found that 10 of them were still in the negative growth range, and more than 10 kinds of commodities increased by less than 10%. "It is difficult to say that the deceleration trend of exports has been curbed. The weak demand in the European and American markets and the increasing trade protectionism are restricting the export of China's electromechanical products," he said. Wang Guiqing believes that there are three preconditions for stabilizing the growth rate of 10% of the electromechanical trade. First, the traditional market demand in Europe and the United States does not fluctuate greatly. Second, the domestic trade policy can maintain stability. Third, it is necessary to stabilize the processing trade and try to be in general. Trade seeks growth. He further explained that from a structural point of view, 60% of China's electromechanical trade comes from the contribution of processing trade, and the characteristics of both ends of processing trade make the international market's fluctuations have an absolute impact on it. He predicted that the annual electromechanical trade as long as it can achieve the growth rate of electromechanical processing trade import and export is basically the same as that of the previous year, the overall mechanical and electrical import and export growth of 10% is still expected to be achieved. Forecasting the slowdown in processing trade growth The unclear export situation in the second half of the year has made the industry's attention that the growth rate of processing trade, which has the significance of import and export leading indicators, is slowing down. In the first quarter, China’s trade deficit under general trade was US$51.67 billion, an increase of 9.4%. In the same period, the trade surplus under China's processing trade was 87.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.4%. Among them, exports were US$196.07 billion, an increase of 6.3%; imports were US$108.66 billion, an increase of only 1.2%. The person in charge of the Guangdong Trade Fair of the Canton Fair reminded at the above symposium that some of the leading indicators of exports are still not good. “Dongguan’s processing trade is still negative, which means that the growth of Guangdong’s exports and the growth of import and export of processing trade will be greatly restricted in the first half of the year,†he said. Zhang Xiaoji, a foreign trade expert and former Minister of Foreign Economic Research of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the expansion of the processing trade surplus in the first quarter is not a good phenomenon. The data shows that the export growth of processing trade is not fast, but imports have slowed down. This shows that the processing trade surplus is due to the slowdown in imports of processing trade, rather than the growth of processing trade exports. Zhang Xiaoji explained that because of the import before it can be exported, it also indicates that the growth rate of processing trade in the future may be further slowed down. However, Li Jian, a researcher at the China Foreign Trade Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce, also said that the slowdown in importation of processing trade does not rule out the possibility that some of the formerly large-scale and large-scale Canadian trade enterprises will gradually transfer their procurement and supporting work to the domestic market. This shows that the added value of processing trade is expanding. Zhang Li, deputy director of the China Foreign Trade Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said that due to various factors such as rising costs, although the processing trade has been restrained in the development of the southeastern coastal areas, the central and western regions still have a good advantage in developing processing trade. The central and western regions should be encouraged to vigorously develop processing trade.
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