Abstract The report of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that China's urbanization has been completed, which will greatly reduce the demand for steel, non-ferrous metals and building materials. "China's energy revolution - supply-side reform and structural optimization, 2017-2050" reported last week that about 70% of the country's population has already...
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report pointed out that China's urbanization has been completed, which will greatly reduce the demand for steel, non-ferrous metals and building materials. "China's energy revolution - supply-side reform and structural optimization, 2017-2050" reported last week that about 70% of the country's population has actually entered the town and its surrounding areas, and China's urbanization process has been completed.
Li Ping, director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said, "In response, China's large-scale urban construction and infrastructure construction will also be completed, which will greatly reduce the consumption of high-energy steel, non-ferrous metals and building materials. Demand, related transportation energy demand will also peak."
Among them, the impact on energy demand is more significant is the cooling of demand for real estate construction. According to this report, from 2006 to 2015, China is equivalent to building about 50 square meters of buildings for each urban population. The current real estate market is supported by a small number of people occupying more houses, improving housing conditions, and the demand for home purchases after young people enter the city. In terms of total volume, total supply has exceeded total demand.
According to the report, 70% of China's energy and electricity demand comes from industry, while energy demand in the three major industries of steel, nonferrous metals and building materials accounts for one-third of industrial demand. The demand of these three major industries will decline, and it will also cause coal, electricity and other related. The decline in the industry's own demand is expected to drive a decline in 1/3 of energy demand.
At the end of September last year, the State Council issued the "Promoting 100 Million Non-Resident Population in Urban Settlement Program" to promote new urbanization. The plan mentioned that the non-domestic population of local and foreign areas will be promoted in urban areas, with the goal of increasing the urbanization rate of the national registered population to 45% by 2020. In 2018, a mid-term evaluation of the settlement of 100 million non-resident populations in cities will be carried out, and a summary assessment will be conducted in 2020.
Analysts believe that the promotion of household registration reform and new urbanization has begun to enter an accelerated phase. Under the current real estate regulation and control, this will promote the return of first- and second-tier cities, and help to digest the inventory of the third- and fourth-tier property market.
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