Summary â–¡ The inter-provincial mobility ratio of graduates will remain high. The average number of graduates changing industries and changing units will be more and more. The tertiary industry belongs to the service industry and will become the main employment destination for college graduates. Level & rdquo...
â–¡ The inter-provincial mobility ratio of graduates will remain high. The average number of graduates changing industries and changing units will be more and more. The tertiary industry belongs to the service industry and will become the main employment destination for college graduates. "The higher the ratio, the greater the proportion of mobility." College graduates in the eastern region are in a good position in job hunting. -------------------------------------------------- ---------
In recent years, China's economic development has shown a new normal, mainly characterized by three characteristics: First, economic growth has shifted from high-speed to medium-high speed; second, industrial structure has been optimized and upgraded; third, economic growth mode has shifted from factor-driven to innovation-driven. From the perspective of economic growth, 2015 is the closing year of China's “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, and the economic growth rate has reached a new low of only 6.9%. This figure is not only the lowest during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, but also the lowest since 1991. From the perspective of industrial structure, the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP in 2012 exceeded that of the secondary industry for the first time. In 2015, the tertiary industry accounted for half of the total, accounting for 50.5%. From the perspective of driving factors, labor costs continue to rise, and a large amount of funds are outside the real economy. Innovation drive is no longer a choice for economic development, but a reality and challenge that has to be faced.
After China's economic development entered a new normal, the scale of college graduates still maintained an upward trend. The number of graduates in 2016 reached 7.65 million. Coupled with the number of graduates who have been employed in the past, the employment situation of college graduates seems to be one year. More difficult than a year. The employment situation of college graduates needs to be told by data. Peking University College of Education has conducted a questionnaire survey on the employment status of college graduates nationwide every year since 2003. The sample size of each survey is about 20,000. As of 2015, the Peking University School of Education surveyed about 140,000 people. College graduates. Based on the statistical description of these sample survey data and the results of quantitative regression analysis, the author believes that the employment of college graduates in China presents the following ten main characteristics.
Graduation goes more dispersed
From the comparison of previous employment survey results, there is a clear difference in the employment direction of college graduates in 2015: First, it shows the phenomenon that the ratio of units has been determined to “double downâ€. In 2015, the proportion of units was only 33.4%, which is the lowest in the seven surveys. This is consistent with the lowest economic growth rate, reflecting the significant impact of economic development on employment. In the case of severe economic situation and increased employment difficulties, colleges and universities pay more attention to the employment guidance of graduates and actively guide students to take various forms of employment. Therefore, the proportion of graduates in 2015 is only 12.8%, which is the lowest in the seven surveys. Second, the proportion of self-employment in 2015 reached a new high of 4.6%. Under the background of the country actively encouraging college graduates to innovate and start businesses, there are indeed more and more graduates who start their own businesses after leaving school, reflecting the effectiveness of relevant entrepreneurial policies. Third, the proportion of overseas departures in 2015 also reached a new high of 5.8%. With the improvement of the income level of Chinese residents, many families have the ability to support their children to study abroad. European and American universities also welcome Chinese students to study abroad. They can not only recruit outstanding students, but also increase their tuition income. In addition, the proportion of students enrolled in 2015 and the proportion of flexible employment are also the highest in previous surveys. Overall, the graduation destination shows a more decentralized character.
The difference in the initial employment rate at each level of education becomes smaller
In the initial stage of enrollment expansion of colleges and universities, the implementation rate of graduates leaving school (referring to the ratio of the implementation of graduation) is higher, and the higher the implementation rate, the higher the implementation rate. With the expansion of graduate students in recent years and the decline in the proportion of college students in colleges and universities, the implementation rate of each level of education has become convergent. From the comparison of the academic level in 2015, the implementation rate is not much different, both are above 80%, and the difference (the difference between the maximum and the minimum) is 6.1 percentage points. The implementation rate of junior college students was the highest, 87.4%; followed by master students, 84.5%; the third was undergraduate, 81.5%; the doctoral student had the lowest implementation rate of 81.3%. The supply and demand relationship of graduates of all levels of education in the job market is different. The level of education level cannot determine the level of corresponding implementation rate.
Private enterprises have different employment opportunities and income levels
The state of economic development is a determining factor in employment opportunities and work conditions. Universities in the eastern region are in a favorable position for graduates to seek employment because of their geographical advantages. Graduates in the eastern region, large and medium-sized cities, emerging service industries (finance and IT), state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises, and engaged in management and technical work can earn higher incomes. These regions, cities, industries, departments, and positions are indeed the main destinations for graduate employment. The employment opportunities and income levels are inconsistent with private enterprises, which absorb the largest proportion of graduates, but the average income is not high.
In 2015, the proportion of college graduates employed in the eastern region was 58.8%, the proportion of employment in cities above the prefecture level was 84.5%, the proportion of employment in the emerging service industry was 26.0%, and the proportion of employment in state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises was the same. At 36.0%, the proportion of management and technical work is 73.4%.
The proportion of professional technical posts has dropped significantly
The types of employment for graduates tend to be diversified, showing the three characteristics of technology, management and service, while the number of graduates engaged in first-line production is still very small. In 2003, more than half of the graduates were engaged in professional and technical positions (51.9%). In 2015, the proportion of professional and technical positions dropped significantly to 28.8%, a decrease of 23.1 percentage points. On the other hand, the proportion of technical assistance, administrative management, enterprise management, and service work has also reached double digits, and the proportion of engaged in first-line industrial production and agricultural production has also increased.
The higher the level of education, the higher the average income.
From the perspective of human capital theory, education is the main form of human capital investment, which can improve the labor productivity of educated people, and thus increase the individual's monetary income and non-monetary income. The quantity and quality of higher education investment will directly affect the level of human capital. Higher human capital levels can lead to higher labor productivity. Therefore, college graduates with higher human capital levels are more likely to receive higher salaries. College graduates are divided into four levels: specialist, undergraduate, master, and doctoral. From 2003 to 2015, the higher the level of education, the higher the average income of graduates.
From the arithmetic mean, the average starting salary for junior college students in 2015 is 2,640 yuan; for undergraduates is 4010 yuan; for master students is 6,363 yuan; for doctoral students, it is 6,753 yuan. The distribution of income is generally right-handed, and most people do not reach the average. Therefore, in the United States and European countries, in addition to the arithmetic mean, the median indicator is generally published. The median indicates the value of the sort in the middle position (50%). From the median salary of graduates in 2015, the junior college students are 2,500 yuan; the undergraduate students are 3,500 yuan; the master's students are 6,000 yuan; and the doctoral students are 6,300 yuan.
The highest satisfaction in employment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Shanghai region
The employment quality of college graduates can be evaluated from both objective and subjective aspects. The employment satisfaction of subjective evaluation of graduates is an important measure. As the scale of higher education continues to rise and the growth rate of economic development declines, it is “hard to find†in the highly competitive employment market for college graduates. For graduates who find a job, job satisfaction shows a significant increase. The total proportion of graduates who are “very satisfied†or “satisfied†with the job they have found has increased significantly from 44.7% in 2003 to 80.8% in 2015.
The employment satisfaction of graduates has the following characteristics: First, there are differences between academic qualifications: doctoral students have the highest satisfaction, followed by master students and undergraduates, and junior college students have the lowest satisfaction. Second, there are differences between employment areas: employment satisfaction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Shanghai region is the highest, the eastern region and the western region are in the middle, and employment satisfaction in the central region is the lowest. Third, there are differences between employment locations. The higher the city level, the higher the satisfaction: the highest satisfaction in employment in provincial capitals or municipalities, and the lowest satisfaction in rural and township employment. Fourth, there are differences in the nature of work units: high satisfaction in employment of state organs, institutions, and state-owned enterprises, and low satisfaction in employment of private enterprises.
Schools, family, friends, and the Internet become the source of job search information.
Schools, friends, family, and the Internet have become the source of job search information. The role of corporate recruitment advertisements, internships, and talent meetings is also significant. In 2003, the demand information released by the school accounted for about half of the source of graduate job search information. In 2015, the ratio fell to 30.3%. In the era of rapid development of Internet technology and its applications, the proportion of online recruitment has risen significantly, from 4.5% in 2005 to 28.5% in 2015.
Career intentions are expressed as "forward/money look"
Employment is a big event in every life for every graduate. From 2003 to 2015, the factors that graduates generally pay attention to during the career selection process remain unchanged. They are characterized by “looking forward†and “seeing moneyâ€, that is, the most important thing for graduates is personal development and economic benefits. In the previous employment surveys, “the development prospects are good†and “the talents that are conducive to the individual†have remained in the top two. The “good welfare†and “high economic income†are basically stable in the third and fourth places. In addition, "conforming to your own interests" is also very important.
Employers value the ability to directly get started
The employment of graduates is affected by many factors. From the perspective of employers, the relative importance of various factors is different. There are 20 kinds of factors affecting employment in the questionnaires of employers, and the overall regular performance The greater the impact on the relationship with employment, the greater the impact. The statistical results show that in terms of employers, factors such as work ability, internship experience, and job search skills are directly related to employment. Factors that are directly related to higher education, such as school fame, popular majors, and academic performance, are of general importance and are ranked in the middle. The factors related to social capital, political capital, and demographic characteristics of relatives and friends, party members, and gender are the least important. The above characteristics have not changed during the period from 2003 to 2015.
Flow can significantly increase personal income
From 2003 to 2015, the proportion of graduates moving across provinces showed an upward trend. In 2015, 51.3% of college graduates moved during school or employment, a significant increase from 45.7% in 2013. Inter-provincial flows can significantly increase personal income, with an average return rate of around 10% to 15%.
The inter-provincial flow of college graduates has the following characteristics: the turnover rate of males is higher than that of females; the higher the “level†of schools, the greater the proportion of mobility; the characteristics of inter-provincial mobility are in line with the “push-pull theoryâ€, and the main flow direction is from economically backward areas. Flow to economically developed regions; human capital levels determine inter-provincial mobility, and the higher the level of education, the greater the likelihood that graduates will move across provinces.
The above top ten employment characteristics are consistent with the domestic and international economic, social, technological, cultural, and demographic trends. These characteristics will not change or even be further strengthened in the future. According to ILO statistics and projections, the proportion of traditional jobs with fixed units, working in fixed locations and earning regular income will be smaller and smaller in the labor market. Therefore, the “unit employment rate†of college graduates in China will further decline, and the proportion of flexible employment and self-employment will gradually increase.
China's per capita GDP has reached about 8,000 US dollars, belonging to the middle and high income group. However, China's economic development is still in the stage of economic take-off and meeting the life of materials. The economic development will still be the decisive factor for employment opportunities and work conditions. At the same time, the regional differences in China's economic development are very significant. Therefore, the cross-provincial ratio of graduates will remain high. Not only cross-provincial flows, cross-urban flows, cross-industry flows, cross-unit flows, and cross-post flows are also high and even tend to rise. Due to the rapid advancement of new knowledge and new technologies, the life cycle of enterprises is becoming shorter and shorter, and the average number of times for graduates to change industries and change units will increase.
China's tertiary industry has become the industry with the largest output value, and its proportion will continue to rise. The tertiary industry belongs to the service industry and will become the main employment destination for college graduates. In particular, modern service industries such as IT and finance not only have a large demand for jobs, but also an ideal industry for graduates to seek employment. Corresponding to the changes in industry and industry, the proportion of jobs and management positions in graduate work types will be larger and larger, and it is expected to exceed professional technology. For higher education, students should be trained to acquire more computer and Internet knowledge to adapt to the call of the information age; to improve students' non-cognitive ability such as interpersonal communication, language expression, and attention to detail to meet the needs of the service industry. It is necessary to pay attention to the individualized education of students to adapt to the healthy growth of innovative and entrepreneurial talents. (The author is a professor at Peking University School of Education)
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