Abstract Li Yang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said yesterday that the global financial crisis that began in 2007 has not passed, but has entered a new stage. Reform is the only way out of the crisis. In the economics department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences held on the same day, the "2014 economic shape...
Li Yang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said yesterday that the global financial crisis that began in 2007 has not passed, but has entered a new stage. Reform is the only way out of the crisis. At the "2014 Economic Situation Symposium" held by the Economics Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on the same day, Li Yang said: "The financial crisis that began in 2007 has swept the world from the United States. At the end of the year, everyone must do something about the situation. Estimated, my overall estimate is that the crisis has not passed, but has entered a new phase."
Li Yang analyzed that from the situation of developed economies, the most difficult time for the crisis has passed, but the basic factors that caused the crisis have not disappeared. More importantly, many unconventional measures have been taken in response to the crisis. These unconventional measures While preventing the deterioration of the crisis, it also aggravated the burden of recovery, making the recovery process confusing.
"The economic development direction of developed economies is heavily biased towards consumers. The economic structure is highly dependent on the service industry, and the manufacturing industry has become hollow." Li Yang said that judging whether the crisis is over or not depends on the biased economic development mode and economic structure in the real economy. Whether the distorted situation is resolved is obviously not solved.
Li Yang said that the crisis was initially a financial crisis, and the performance was very high. De-leveraging is a necessary path to rescue the crisis. Now the de-leverage has not been completed, and it is still improving in a certain sense.
“The global crisis has not passed, and the second is in emerging economies and developing countries.†Li Yang said that there was a phenomenon in the early stages of the crisis. On the one hand, the developed economies were very poor, and on the other hand, emerging economies and development. The economic development of the Chinese countries is so good that there is a concept called "two-speed derailment". The two countries have two speeds and are derailed. But now, the crisis has entered the second phase, developed economies have stabilized, and emerging economies have begun to crise.
When talking about the Chinese economy, Li Yang said that since 2009, China's economy has entered a new stage, namely the medium-to-high-speed growth stage, presenting five outstanding problems:
Slow down the problem. Although the current 7.5%, 7.6% speed is already quite high, but this is from the 10% high growth rate, the impact of two or three percentage points is quite large. "It is estimated that this impact will take years to eliminate, and then enter the normal stage of high-speed growth." For this change in speed, there has been no very good explanation at home and abroad.
Real estate issues. Li Yang said: "Real estate level real estate, I noticed that no one talks, but everyone knows it is a big problem." Li Yang expects that after the launch of the national real estate registration system in June this year, in addition to high housing prices, The problem of excess housing will also come to the fore. "The problem is very prominent now, and the financial sector is preparing." "Everyone said that there will be problems in the real economy this year, first of all, real estate problems."
Overcapacity problem. Li Yang said that overcapacity is already a "cancer." The rate of economic growth is not going up, and it depends on investment. After the investment comes up, it leads to more overcapacity. This is the entanglement of the system.
Financial issues. Li Yang said that developed countries are broad currency, tight credit, and low interest rates. China's finance is wide currency, high interest rates, difficult loans, and expensive loans. These phenomena are ridiculously combined to form China's financial industry today. The reality. China's financial system must be operated on, and it cannot be adjusted by policy, because policy adjustment cannot solve deep-seated problems.
Local government debt problems. Li Yang believes that in general, local government debt is not a problem, but it is a big problem in local areas and local areas, and must be prepared.
"The crisis has reached such a level that the root cause lies in the problem of the real economy. Therefore, the fundamental solution to the crisis is reform." Li Yang said that which country has the most profound understanding of its own problems, the most complete reform strategy, and the determination to reform. The biggest and most effective, which country will take the lead in the future.
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