According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, in April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.3% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from March. The total retail sales of social consumer goods was 1.76 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 12.8% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points higher than last month, but down 1.3 percentage points over the same period last year.
In terms of investment, from January to April, the national fixed asset investment did not include 913.19 billion yuan of rural households, a nominal increase of 20.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from January to March.
It is worth noting that from January to April, the national real estate development investment was 1.9 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 21.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points higher than that of January-March. Real estate development was not as "foreign" as expected. "Impact.
In the first four months, the total amount of successful land sales for Shanghai has exceeded 30 billion yuan, an increase of more than 360% compared with the same period of last year. This also reveals that if the reform of the fiscal and taxation system has not taken significant action, in order to solve the local financial constraints. The local government will once again seek a breakthrough in the income from land sales.
Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Nomura Securities China, believes that the industrial added value and fixed asset investment data in April are very weak. The industrial value added growth rate is mainly due to the adjustment of the working day, because there were two more in April this year than last year. Working day. If the factors of change in working days are removed, the actual industrial growth rate is actually slowing down.
Consistent with the performance of macro data, the market demand signals reflected in the micro market are also weak.
After large steel companies such as Anshan Iron and Steel and Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. have lowered their ex-factory prices for steel in June, Baosteel, which is regarded as the industry benchmark, has to cut its ex-factory price for the first time. At the beginning of March, Baosteel also raised the ex-factory price of steel in April.
At the same time, overcapacity has not improved because of the one-year price decline. Since the previous production has been concentrated since last year, the average daily output of crude steel has repeatedly set a new record in recent months. Liu Zhenjiang, secretary of the party committee and vice president of China Iron and Steel Association, said at the time of participating in the steel planning forum that China's steel industry has undergone structural adjustment and transformation of its development mode, and has not seized the "bull nose" of production capacity, and has not solved the problem of overcapacity. The key. Similar to the steel industry, flat glass, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other industries have also experienced significant declines in efficiency due to overcapacity. This year, adjusting overcapacity will be the core issue of national economic policy.
However, before the introduction of the long-term policy, there were no signs of high-level plans to use monetary policy or fiscal policy and other means of adjustment. However, Zhang Zhiwei believes that weak real economic data will lead to policy relaxation, and the total social financing will further slow down in the next few months.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, believes that the information revealed by the monetary authorities in the first quarter monetary policy implementation report is that quality and efficiency rather than pure volume and speed are the primary considerations of the policy. Therefore, monetary policy will not Continue to overweight at the existing level of easing, but “use well†and “more targeted†under the existing strengths in order to achieve the effect of “improving service to the real economyâ€.
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