The top design of China's energy reform

21 million kilowatts, 18 million kilowatts, 10 million kilowatts.

This is the new installation target for hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 2013, which will be the most concrete three-digit figure for energy development this year.

Judging from the information disclosed by the National Energy Administration, this year's energy development track basically shows: wind power and photovoltaic power generation continue to “deep adjustment”, shale gas enters the first year of development, the first mention of energy system reform top-level design and overall planning, hydropower is slow accelerate.

Target for 2013

The National Energy Work Conference has reduced the focus of this year's energy work to eight. In summary, it is mainly adjusted from the aspects of traditional energy, renewable energy and institutional reform.

In terms of traditional energy, it mainly proposes to vigorously develop unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale gas and coalbed methane and accelerate the construction of trans-regional transmission channels.

In terms of renewable energy, it is adjusted to “deep development”, among which hydropower is “positive development”, wind power is coordinated development, and photovoltaic power generation is vigorously developing distributed power plants. Not only that, but also specific targets for these three items, among which, hydropower plans to add 21 million kilowatts of installed capacity, 18 million kilowatts of wind power installed capacity, and 10 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation installed capacity.

In addition, it is worth mentioning that for the first time at the Energy Work Conference, the content of “top-level design” was stated, saying that “in-depth study will be conducted to deepen the top-level design and overall planning of the energy system reform, and the overall plan, roadmap and timetable for reform will be clarified. Carry out pilot demonstrations."

"The so-called top-level design of the energy system reform is to set up the Ministry of Energy." Lin Boqiang, a member of the Energy Expert Advisory Committee of the National Energy Commission, told this reporter: "From the current progress and progress, the National Development and Reform Commission has drawn energy prices and energy projects. The operability of the related functional rights is not large, and it can only stay in the in-depth research stage."

In Lin Boqiang's view, this year's National Energy Work Conference mainly delivered two strong signals. One is that the development of unconventional oil and gas resources represented by shale gas will be vigorously promoted at the national level. This means that from this year on, shale gas will officially enter the first year of development; the other is to start the rescue of new energy industry at the national level. Overweight, and targeted adjustments for wind power and photovoltaic industry issues, the industry is expected to pick up.

"But there is a problem that must be vigilant, that is, shale gas will be fully promoted and developed. It is necessary to avoid the problems that arise when wind power and photovoltaics begin to develop in the same year. It must be developed in an orderly manner, and cannot be carried out in a passive manner. To formulate practical planning and development plans, the current shale gas 'Twelfth Five-Year Plan' is still very rough, and there are many places that need to be improved. It is necessary to introduce relevant rules in various aspects as soon as possible, and to conduct research on the problems arising from the development of the United States. And evasive, can not relax the assessment of technology and the environment."

"Landscape" re-adjustment

In addition, the National Energy Work Conference proposed three sets of concrete figures for energy development in 2013, two of which came from new energy sources. According to the proposed targets, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation this year was 18 million kilowatts and 10 million kilowatts respectively.

Not only that, but also the development direction proposed by last year's work conference is different. For wind power, the direction of last year was "positive and orderly development", and this year's proposal was "coordinated development", and photovoltaics proposed "actively developing solar energy" last year. This year, it is proposed to "develop vigorously distributed photovoltaic power generation." “Last year, the wind power industry experienced overall losses and performance declines. The main reason was that the wind power development period caused a vicious market environment due to disorderly development. After one year of industry adjustment, the biggest bottleneck of wind power is the grid connection problem.” Lin Boqiang said.

In this regard, Qin Haiyan, secretary-general of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, said in an interview with this reporter that "current wind power abandonment and power cuts are still very serious, which requires coordination at the national level to ensure the health of the wind power industry. development of."

Not only the development enterprise, the wind turbine manufacturing enterprise also has the problem of “coordination” of the power grid. At present, the wind turbine needs to pass the test of low voltage crossing before entering the wind farm, and the test can only be connected to the grid through the test of the State Grid China Electric Power Research Institute. The phenomenon is serious.

"This requires the state to coordinate between the two sides and come up with feasible measures to change the status quo." Qin Haiyan said, "In addition, this coordination should also include another meaning, that is, to coordinate the relationship between wind power and other power sources, In particular, between wind power and thermal power, we must develop together. Wind power is not an energy source for other power sources."

In terms of photovoltaic power generation, the same is true. Since this year, due to the influence of Europe on China's PV products, the domestic PV industry, which is already in a cold wave, has entered the “extreme cold” directly. For this, the national level has begun to adjust its policy and planning direction.

"This year's target is 10 million kilowatts, and the '12th Five-Year' goal of renewable energy planning is 21 GW, or 21 million kilowatts. At present, the installed capacity of photovoltaics is 7 million kilowatts. From this point of view, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" The target will be adjusted affirmatively. According to the target speed of 10 million kilowatts per year, it will reach 37 GW in 2015, far exceeding 21 GW." Lin Boqiang said.

Qin Haiyan believes that "from active development to vigorous development, and from the development of solar energy to the development of distributed power generation, indicating that the national level has begun to pay attention to and refine the direction of the industry. At present, the cost of solar energy has been reduced all the way, and the cost of electricity is basically close to the on-grid price. This will be the best time to promote the development of the domestic industry market, and in the case of a sluggish foreign market, the promotion of the establishment of the domestic market can also help to digest domestic production capacity, especially the development of distributed generation, which can quickly form a market and form a flower everywhere. The situation."

Hydropower "acceleration"

According to this year's hydropower development target, the installed capacity will increase by 21 million kilowatts a year. Compared with last year's target, this target has only increased by 1 million kilowatts. However, it can be seen from the calculation that the speed of hydropower is relatively slow.

According to the data released by the 2012 National Energy Work Conference, as of 2011, China's hydropower installed capacity was 230 million kilowatts, and the scale of construction under construction was 55 million kilowatts. According to the target set by the working conference for the year, “the newly started hydropower scale reached 20 million kilowatts in 2012”. However, according to the latest data, up to now, China has approved 16.2 million kilowatts of newly started projects, of which about 10 million kilowatts of conventional hydropower and 6.2 million kilowatts of pumped storage.

In other words, the 2012 new construction project is still close to 4 million kilowatts from the target of 20 million kilowatts. However, this speed has increased compared with 2011. According to the data, in 2011, 9 large-scale hydropower stations, such as Zhazadu, were newly built, with a installed capacity of 12.6 million kilowatts.

According to the "12th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development" released last year, by 2015, the installed capacity of hydropower in the country will reach 290 million kilowatts. According to the data released by this year's Energy Work Conference, as of 2012, China's hydropower installed capacity was 249 million. Kilowatts, that is to say, 41 million kilowatts of installed capacity should be added in the next three years, with an average installed capacity of 14 million kilowatts per year.

"At present, the annual installed capacity is about 10 million kilowatts, and the goal of completing the hydropower installation of 290 million kilowatts is a bit urgent," Lin Boqiang said.

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