At the end of last year, after the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the central government quickly introduced the “4 trillion†investment plan. At the beginning of this year, when the financial crisis was still raging, the top ten industrial revitalization plans were released in turn, providing an important booster for promoting economic recovery and achieving the goal of “guaranteeing growthâ€.
By the end of the year, with the joint efforts of the “4 trillion†investment and the ten major industrial revitalization plans, the recovery momentum of the Chinese economy has been established. In 2010, when the government's investment driving momentum may be weakened, it is necessary to ensure the further recovery of the national economy, how to work hard to adjust the structure, and to activate the endogenous growth mechanism of the economy through technological innovation and industrial upgrading. Question.
Rescuing the real economy to deal with the financial crisis
Looking back at the top ten industries that are regarded as the “maintenance of growthâ€, we can find that in addition to the logistics industry, the other nine are industrial industries. The added value of these nine industries accounts for nearly 80% of the total industrial added value, accounting for 1/3 of GDP. In this regard, Jin Hao, director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that this choice actually has two meanings: First, China's industrialization process is far from over, and industry still plays a pivotal role in the national economy. Second, in response to the financial crisis, it is necessary to exert strength from the real economy. At this point, China’s policy orientation is very clear.
From the actual situation, the effect of the ten major industrial revitalization plans on the economy is very obvious. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in April of the first batch of industrial revitalization plans, the growth rate of domestic industrial added value was 7.3%, and then it recovered month by month. After the second half of the year, the rate of recovery was significantly accelerated. In October, the growth rate of domestic industrial added value reached 16.1%, which exceeded the expectations of many market participants.
“Because of the low base in the same period last year, we judged that the growth rate of industrial added value in November could reach a new high,†said Liu Tiejun, senior analyst at Haitong Securities. As a result, the industrial value added by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by 15%-16% year-on-year. Since industrial added value accounts for more than 40% of GDP in recent years, the strong recovery of industry will provide important support for the completion of the goal of “guaranteeing growthâ€.
Expanding domestic demand to stimulate industrial enterprise recovery
How did the top ten industrial revitalization plans contribute to the strong recovery of industrial enterprises? At this point, the market people's understanding is more consistent, that is, the start of the domestic demand market, so that the relevant manufacturing enterprises ushered in a key turn.
Under the guidance of the policy of expanding domestic demand, the most obvious benefit is the automobile industry. According to statistics released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, domestic sales of automobiles in the first 10 months reached 10.8914 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.71%, driven by preferential policies such as purchase tax reduction and automobile going to the countryside. Ten thousand mark.
At present, the market generally expects domestic car sales to reach a record 13 million this year, thus ranking the world's largest auto consumer market. It is precisely because of this that many industry insiders including the Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, Dong Yang, hope that the government can maintain the stability and continuity of the automobile consumption policy, and avoid the uncertainty of factors to encourage consumers to purchase cars at the end of the year. Car demand.
Compared with the auto industry, the expansion of domestic demand has played a role in the export-dependent textile industry. According to Zhang Li, in the “three troikas†that spurred the growth of the domestic textile economy in the first three quarters, the growth of fixed asset investment was slow (6.6%), far lower than the growth rate of about 30% of the national industrial investment. Exports continued to decline (-11.8%), while domestic clothing consumption grew by 21%, becoming the main driver of growth. The proportion of domestic textile sales increased from 77% at the end of 2008 to 80% in the first half of this year. Over the years, the situation of high dependence on the international market has improved, and the healthy development pattern of the industry driven by consumption has taken shape.
"Tune the structure" has a long way to go
"People have no worries, they must have long-term concerns." Throughout the ten major industrial revitalization plans, the purpose is not to simply respond to the crisis, but to take care of both the long and the short, and treat both the symptoms and the root causes. However, in the actual situation, due to the urgent task of “guaranteeing growthâ€, the pace of “adjusting the structure†in some industries has lagged behind.
Taking the first steel industry adjustment and revitalization plan as an example, the plan clearly mentions that it is necessary to promote the joint restructuring work, so that the top five steel enterprises' production capacity accounts for more than 45% of the national production capacity.
However, in the actual development process, the statistics of China Steel Association show that the domestic crude steel large and medium-sized enterprises accounted for 31.3% of the total increase in the first three quarters of this year, and the remaining 68.7% increase actually came from local small and medium-sized enterprises. enterprise. As a result, the concentration of China's steel industry does not rise and fall, and runs counter to the spirit of planning.
“Because domestic fixed asset investment will continue to remain relatively high next year, the demand for steel in 2010 is relatively optimistic. In the case of industry growth without worry, we will focus on the issue of structural adjustment in the future.†Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute Dean Li Xinchuang said that there are still two major structural problems in the current steel industry: one is that there are too many backward production capacity, and the other is that the layout is unreasonable. In this regard, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is organizing the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Mergers and Acquisitions of Iron and Steel Enterprises" and "Access Conditions for the Steel Industry." It is foreseeable that 2010 will be a year of major adjustments in the start-up structure of the steel industry. (He Xinrong)
By the end of the year, with the joint efforts of the “4 trillion†investment and the ten major industrial revitalization plans, the recovery momentum of the Chinese economy has been established. In 2010, when the government's investment driving momentum may be weakened, it is necessary to ensure the further recovery of the national economy, how to work hard to adjust the structure, and to activate the endogenous growth mechanism of the economy through technological innovation and industrial upgrading. Question.
Rescuing the real economy to deal with the financial crisis
Looking back at the top ten industries that are regarded as the “maintenance of growthâ€, we can find that in addition to the logistics industry, the other nine are industrial industries. The added value of these nine industries accounts for nearly 80% of the total industrial added value, accounting for 1/3 of GDP. In this regard, Jin Hao, director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that this choice actually has two meanings: First, China's industrialization process is far from over, and industry still plays a pivotal role in the national economy. Second, in response to the financial crisis, it is necessary to exert strength from the real economy. At this point, China’s policy orientation is very clear.
From the actual situation, the effect of the ten major industrial revitalization plans on the economy is very obvious. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in April of the first batch of industrial revitalization plans, the growth rate of domestic industrial added value was 7.3%, and then it recovered month by month. After the second half of the year, the rate of recovery was significantly accelerated. In October, the growth rate of domestic industrial added value reached 16.1%, which exceeded the expectations of many market participants.
“Because of the low base in the same period last year, we judged that the growth rate of industrial added value in November could reach a new high,†said Liu Tiejun, senior analyst at Haitong Securities. As a result, the industrial value added by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by 15%-16% year-on-year. Since industrial added value accounts for more than 40% of GDP in recent years, the strong recovery of industry will provide important support for the completion of the goal of “guaranteeing growthâ€.
Expanding domestic demand to stimulate industrial enterprise recovery
How did the top ten industrial revitalization plans contribute to the strong recovery of industrial enterprises? At this point, the market people's understanding is more consistent, that is, the start of the domestic demand market, so that the relevant manufacturing enterprises ushered in a key turn.
Under the guidance of the policy of expanding domestic demand, the most obvious benefit is the automobile industry. According to statistics released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, domestic sales of automobiles in the first 10 months reached 10.8914 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.71%, driven by preferential policies such as purchase tax reduction and automobile going to the countryside. Ten thousand mark.
At present, the market generally expects domestic car sales to reach a record 13 million this year, thus ranking the world's largest auto consumer market. It is precisely because of this that many industry insiders including the Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, Dong Yang, hope that the government can maintain the stability and continuity of the automobile consumption policy, and avoid the uncertainty of factors to encourage consumers to purchase cars at the end of the year. Car demand.
Compared with the auto industry, the expansion of domestic demand has played a role in the export-dependent textile industry. According to Zhang Li, in the “three troikas†that spurred the growth of the domestic textile economy in the first three quarters, the growth of fixed asset investment was slow (6.6%), far lower than the growth rate of about 30% of the national industrial investment. Exports continued to decline (-11.8%), while domestic clothing consumption grew by 21%, becoming the main driver of growth. The proportion of domestic textile sales increased from 77% at the end of 2008 to 80% in the first half of this year. Over the years, the situation of high dependence on the international market has improved, and the healthy development pattern of the industry driven by consumption has taken shape.
"Tune the structure" has a long way to go
"People have no worries, they must have long-term concerns." Throughout the ten major industrial revitalization plans, the purpose is not to simply respond to the crisis, but to take care of both the long and the short, and treat both the symptoms and the root causes. However, in the actual situation, due to the urgent task of “guaranteeing growthâ€, the pace of “adjusting the structure†in some industries has lagged behind.
Taking the first steel industry adjustment and revitalization plan as an example, the plan clearly mentions that it is necessary to promote the joint restructuring work, so that the top five steel enterprises' production capacity accounts for more than 45% of the national production capacity.
However, in the actual development process, the statistics of China Steel Association show that the domestic crude steel large and medium-sized enterprises accounted for 31.3% of the total increase in the first three quarters of this year, and the remaining 68.7% increase actually came from local small and medium-sized enterprises. enterprise. As a result, the concentration of China's steel industry does not rise and fall, and runs counter to the spirit of planning.
“Because domestic fixed asset investment will continue to remain relatively high next year, the demand for steel in 2010 is relatively optimistic. In the case of industry growth without worry, we will focus on the issue of structural adjustment in the future.†Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute Dean Li Xinchuang said that there are still two major structural problems in the current steel industry: one is that there are too many backward production capacity, and the other is that the layout is unreasonable. In this regard, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is organizing the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Mergers and Acquisitions of Iron and Steel Enterprises" and "Access Conditions for the Steel Industry." It is foreseeable that 2010 will be a year of major adjustments in the start-up structure of the steel industry. (He Xinrong)
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