Although the announcement of the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018" came earlier than expected, it was fierce and cruel than expected. In the eyes of many people in the industry, the new policy of “suspending the issuance of ordinary ground power station indicatorsâ€, “restricted scale of distributed photovoltaicsâ€, and “reducing the price of on-grid electricity†have made the previously dependent subsidies of photovoltaics “longer overnightâ€. ".
How does PV rebound from the market share to the leading enterprises after “weaning�
Following the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Energy Bureau jointly issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018" (due to the date of the May 31, and was referred to as the "531 New Deal" in the industry), The scale is stronger than expected, and the most stringent PV New Deal in this history continues to ferment. The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration said that the introduction of the New Deal is an inevitable requirement for the photovoltaic industry to enter a new stage of high-quality development, and is of great significance for the sustainable and healthy development of the industry.
Behind the strict regulation is the high-speed and disorderly development of the photovoltaic industry. By the end of 2017, China's photovoltaic power generation increased by more than 51.7GW, a year-on-year increase of nearly 54%, accounting for half of the global installed capacity, with a cumulative installed capacity of 130GW. With the continuous expansion of PV construction scale in recent years, especially the unrestricted growth of distributed PV since 2017, the country's renewable energy subsidy funds have caused unprecedented pressure. According to estimates by the Ministry of Finance, as of the end of 2017, the subsidy for photovoltaic power generation reached 100 billion yuan, and the light-emitting rate in Xinjiang and Gansu provinces remained above 17%.
The “531 New Deal†arranged for the control of new PV scale, reduction of subsidy intensity, and marketization of resource allocation. The scale is limited, and the indicators of ordinary ground power stations bear the brunt. At present, the National Energy Administration has suspended the issuance of indicators for terrestrial photovoltaic power stations in 2018. In the future, the construction of the leading base will be the main position and important way for the construction of ordinary power stations. From the "mainly will take the lead construction as the main position and important way of ordinary power station construction", we can find that the future ordinary PV power plant project may be invested in the construction of the current leader project, in short, the ordinary power station project. Leading the runner.
After the "531 New Deal" is issued, the rapid expansion of the photovoltaic industry will come to an abrupt end. Ordinary power stations will no longer arrange indicators this year, while distributed PV has completed an installed capacity of 7.685 million kilowatts in the first quarter, and the remaining “subsidized†distributed indicators have been very few. Considering the establishment of distributed photovoltaics this year, distributed photovoltaic power generation projects connected to the grid before May 31 (inclusive) will be included in the scope of nationally recognized scale management, and projects not included in the scope of nationally recognized scale management will be supported by local governments.
This means that the income level and construction scale of new distributed PV power plants will be greatly affected by different local policies. According to incomplete statistics, similar notices have been issued in nearly 10 places including Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu and Henan. However, industry analysis generally pointed out that "'5.31 New Deal' will have a greater impact on PV companies, and it is expected that the installed capacity will be reduced by half in 2018." Controlling scale and subsidies have become the most important industry theme in 2018.
The core starting point of this major adjustment of PV policy is to strictly control PV subsidies and reduce the on-grid tariff of new investment projects by 0.05 yuan/kWh. The on-grid tariffs for Class I, Class II, and Class III resource areas are adjusted to 0.5 yuan, 0.6 yuan, and 0.7 yuan per kWh (including tax). And after five months, the benchmark price of the grid was lowered again, breaking the previous year’s practice of one year, which means that the frequency of electricity price adjustment will accelerate in the future. Considering the current decline in photovoltaic power costs and component costs, coupled with the sprint phase of the PV industry entering the goal of “parity onlineâ€, there is room for the price cuts and subsidies to fall back.
Some experts in the industry analyzed that after the "531" New Deal, China's PV industry will truly return to the market from the policy and move toward "adult". In the medium term, the launch of the New Deal means that the industry's reshuffle process will be accelerated and industrial concentration will be further improved. The time for the arrival of affordable Internet access is expected to exceed expectations. Among them, enterprises with advanced technology, high development quality and strong cost control ability are expected to have development opportunities. The professional division of labor is “the left is kingâ€. The profit distribution of industrial and commercial roofs will be further improved after market-based trading. Looking at the operating terminal, household photovoltaic systems contain hundreds of billions of markets, and terminal channel resources are core competitiveness.
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