Non-ferrous metals: Gold prices hit a record high in line with market expectations

On September 14, the prices of aluminum and zinc rose, which were 1.36% and 1.26% respectively. Copper and lead prices fell by 0.07% and 0.36%.

Comments:

The data released by China on September 11 showed that the industrial added value above designated size in August rose 13.9% year-on-year, rebounding from the slowdown of 13.4% in July. There is a further decline in copper stocks and supply and demand are in a state of tension, which constitutes support for their prices. The structural adjustment of China’s economic policy is unwavering, and the demand for basic metals is unlikely to increase significantly. Moreover, the August CPI reached 3.5%. If the industry continues to make the government's decision on monetary policy will be diverted from the dilemma, the possibility of a rate hike or appreciation will increase, and this will put pressure on metal prices. . At the same time, the US economy is not optimistic and does not support the rise in metal prices. Maintain the judgment of metal price fluctuations.

The price of gold hit a record high, which is in line with our judgment. In short, the nature of gold's natural currency is fundamental. The financial crisis in 2008 originated from the United States and the world. It shows the inherent deficiencies of the US dollar. Under the current international currency system, the Triffin puzzle cannot be solved. The central banks of various countries have the need to increase their gold reserves, especially those countries where Asian gold reserves accounted for relatively low rates. This is the basis. At present, the European economy is supporting the gold price regardless of whether it is good or bad. To the bad is the function of the hedging function. The good will inevitably lead to the decline of the dollar. Therefore, the U.S. economy plays a direct role in the price of gold. In addition to keeping the interest rate unchanged, the U.S. may continue to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, which makes the U.S. dollar lower. This time it is the market that there is rumors that the Fed will implement a more loose monetary policy later. Under the premise that the price of gold rose, the gold output of gold listed companies rose steadily, profitability continued to increase, and growth was good. We are optimistic about the investment value of the gold industry in the medium and long term.

The valuation pressure of the sector has eased, but it is still relatively high. We maintain the “neutral” investment rating of the non-ferrous metals industry. Our strategy is based on the gold industry and focuses on new metal materials. The key stocks we focus on are Shandong Gold , China Gold Gold , Zhongke Sanhuan , Xiamen Tungsten Industry and Ningbo Yunsheng .

Investment risk: The macro economy, especially the degree of economic recovery in the United States, exceeds expectations; major countries, especially the U.S., have exceeded the expectation of tightening monetary policy; whether the new energy policy of each country is continuous; and the time of mass production of new energy vehicles is uncertain.