PTA supply and demand surged up ** Quotes

Affected by the supply and demand relationship between the upstream and downstream industry chains, the PTA (pure terephthalic acid) ** price continued to rise sharply, and was greatly affected by the July 7th low of 7,200 yuan (t price, the same below). Rising to the October 9 high of 8,868 yuan, the cumulative increase reached 1668 yuan, a relative increase of 23.17%, and then trapped in high regional wide shocks finishing. According to the analysis, the prices of upstream raw materials, supply shortages, strong demand for downstream products, rising operating rates, and rising spot prices have contributed to a number of bullish factors, causing prices of PTA** to continue rising substantially.

Raw material PX prices bottomed out Asian PX (paraxylene) prices have rebounded rapidly since bottoming out in mid-August and have now stabilized at $1,000. PX prices of PTA prices directly supporting role this year PTA production profits little changed at 1,200 yuan basically change, and with the PTA spot prices of imported conversion of PX production costs equal magnitude changes in the same direction. PX prices bottoming out, pre-PX manufacturers because of low profits and reduce the operating rate is one reason more important reason is that gasoline consumption peak last summer, the seasonal decline in refinery operating rates, which directly reduce naphtha yield, enhance naphtha Oil prices. From mid-August to the end of September, the production profits of naphtha and PX have rebounded significantly. Among them, PX production profits have risen from US$-40 to US$100, basically reaching an equilibrium.

The overhaul of equipment increased supply reduction The recent domestic PTA plant load was again close to full-load operation, and the supply was relatively abundant. Except for Jialong Petrochemical, a small amount of PTA supply went through the spot market, and most of the PTA manufacturers basically executed contract users. There is less supply in the spot market. It is reported that, Yangzi Petrochemical, Formosa Ningbo, KP Chemical, Samsung, Indian Oil, and Formosa Plastics in Taiwan Tuntex PTA and some other major domestic and foreign manufacturers are in the 10 to 11 months there have been planned plant maintenance, and then again from the operating rate The fall of highs will be inevitable.

The characteristics of the downstream consumer season is obviously October each year is the peak season of polyester consumption, because the downstream textile companies began processing winter and spring loaded orders. This year, an additional factor was added. In August, some textile companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang stopped production due to power restrictions. After September, this part of the production capacity began to be released, providing an additional source of demand. The load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang had recovered to 76% by the end of September, an increase of 11% from the end of August. The increase in demand brought band polyester sales, filament short-term, bottle chip prices have increased significantly. In addition, the sharp increase in cotton prices also boosted the price of polyester yarn. The soaring cotton price has led textile companies to shift more to chemical fiber raw materials and boost demand for chemical fiber. The downstream production and sales of polyester are in a good situation. The production and sales of polyester filaments are generally between 100% and 150%, and some are higher at 200% or above. Polyester staple fiber prices more popular, manufacturers almost no inventory, some manufacturers even owed goods and negative inventory situation, mostly 5 to 10 days, mainstream manufacturers supply tight supply, the market pull up the atmosphere of increasingly strong, record breaking price New highs during the year. The mainstream transaction price in the polyester chip market rose steadily and the market continued to be firm. Upstream shipments are less reluctant to sell, and downstream activities are actively followed up. High production profits drive the polyester factory to increase its purchase of polyester raw materials.

The high operating rate of the industry remains hidden. The average daily load of the PTA industry was 89.5% this year, and it reached a high of 98% at the end of September. The high operating rate has accelerated the speed of warehouse receipt formation in the market. According to the Zhengzhou Chamber of Commerce, as of now, there are more than 15,000 PTA warrants, that is, more than 75,000 tons, and the high operating rate will have little impact on the market when the spot sales are good, but when the sales season is over, it will have obvious The suppression effect will gradually appear in late October.

In summary, due to the stimulating effect of a large number of conversion factors on supply and demand, the price of PTA** continues to rise, and the market may face a modest return adjustment, but the short-term gains will remain difficult to reverse.

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