(2) Export growth has slowed down
From January to July 2008, we saw that the export growth rate of excavators, loaders and bulldozers continued to decline. Due to the global economic slowdown, the demand for overseas construction machinery will decline, and the growth rate of China's construction machinery products will decline further.
(3) Industry cost pressure has eased
In the first half of 2008, as the price of raw materials continued to rise, and the cost of fuel and labor continued to rise, the cost control of enterprises and the ability to pass on to downstream enterprises declined, and profitability declined. With the sharp decline in steel and international oil prices, the cost pressure of enterprises in the future will be alleviated. At the same time, due to the semi-annual and one-year procurement cycle of raw materials and parts, and the impact of existing raw materials and parts inventory, the cost The decline will increase the performance of listed companies in the industry in 2009.
In the last strategy, we gave the industry a “neutral†rating, and the actual trend of the industry is basically in line with our expectations. According to Bloomberg data, the average P/E ratio of listed companies in the major international construction machinery industry is about 9.54 times in 2008. The average P/E ratio of China's major construction machinery listed companies in 2008 is 10.69 times. The overall valuation of the industry is gradually in line with international standards, but due to the future demand of the industry. The company will slow down and the industry's profit growth will also decline. Considering the overall valuation of the current market, we continue to maintain the industry's “neutral†rating.
2. Machine tool industry: industry demand declines, growth rate will slow down
Since 2008, the output of China's metal cutting machine tool products has fallen sharply year-on-year. The cumulative output of the company has increased by 5.6% from January to August, down 5 percentage points from the same period of last year. The year-on-year growth rate of CNC machine tool output also showed a downward trend. The cumulative production in January-August increased by 10.2% year-on-year, which was 22.1% lower than the same period of last year.
Due to the adjustment of product structure, the numerical control rate of China's machine tool products continues to rise, and the sales revenue of the machine tool industry has maintained a growth rate of more than 30%, and the growth rate is much higher than the growth rate of production. At the same time, in the face of the sharp rise in raw material prices in the first half of the year, the rise in labor costs and other cost pressures, the industry's profitability remained stable.
In 2007, the output of CNC machine tools in China increased significantly, and the monthly growth rate remained above 30%, which was much higher than the growth rate of Jinchee machine tools by 11%. Since 2008, due to the decline in equipment investment, the output of Jinchee machine tools and the output growth rate of CNC machine tools have fallen sharply. It can be seen that due to the lag of the impact of macro-control on investment products, the speed of upgrading and upgrading of equipment to enterprises has slowed down, and the demand for machine tools has declined. . The future macro-tightening policy will continue, and the speed of China's machine tool development will further slow down.
From January to July 2008, China's CNC machine tool exports maintained a growth of more than 35%, while the number of metal processing machine tools exports shrank sharply, with a drop of more than 20%. Due to global financial turmoil, economic growth will slow down. It is expected that the growth rate of China's CNC machine tool exports will decline year-on-year. From January to July, the number of imported metal processing machine tools and CNC machine tools in China has shrunk, reflecting the decline in domestic demand, while the number of imports of CNC machine tools has shrunk by 17.88%, much larger than 4% of metal machine tools. It can be seen that after rapid development in recent years, the competitiveness of the domestic machine tool industry has been greatly enhanced, and the import substitution capability of CNC machine tools has been greatly enhanced.
Although the number of imported metal processing machine tools and CNC machine tools has shrunk, the amount of imports has continued to grow. From January to July 2008, they increased by 11.5% and 2.18% respectively. Most of the imported products in China are high-end precision machine tools. The value is high. The export growth rate of metal processing machine tools and CNC machine tools is 35.2% and 45.32% respectively, which is much higher than the increase in export volume. The added value of China's export products is also rising.
In the last strategy report, we pointed out that the machine tool industry will face the risk of falling downstream demand, and the actual industry development is in line with our previous judgment. With the continuation of macro tightening policies and the slowdown of the global economy, the demand for China's machine tool industry will continue to decline in the future, and corporate performance growth will also decline simultaneously. We continue to maintain the industry's “neutral†rating.
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